Next elections: A prediction

Resilient

Minister (2k+ posts)
Some correction:


There are a total of 141 NA seats in Punjab. PMLN is poised to win around 120 seats, PTI will get around 8-10 seats, 6-8 by PPP, and remaining by independents.

KP has 45 NA after the merger of FATA with KP. PTI will get around 20 seats from there. PMLN will get around 8-10 NA seats, and the rest will be won by JUI-F and ANP.

Sindh has 61 NA seats. It will show similar results that were in 2013. That is, PPP and MQM will share major pie. MQM will reclaim its territory from PTI.

Balochistan has 16 NA seats. This will be divided among regional parties.

So, out of total of 272 NA seats, PMLN will 130 plus NA seats at its own and will be poised to form government at its own. JUI-F and ANP are always there to support them.
نون لیگ کراچی سے دو سیٹیں نکال لے گی اور اتنی ہی اندرون سندھ سے جیت ڈی اے کے ساتھ اتحاد کرکے حاصل
 

Awan S

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
All those who are posting here are either talking without any ground realities check or are being paid to do so (can be for or against PTI). I was at the ground level, in different places of Punjab and KPK and can say very safely that PTI will lose 80% of their seats which they won in 2018, the rest 20% will also be those where there is candidate's own inherited or bought out seats.

Some are calling me Patwari, without knowing that I have been a staunch PTI supporter even then when they were no where to be seen. As a proof one can see my posts from 2011 onwards on this very forum. But again I was/am a supporter and not a mental slave. This was what we did not like in PMLN and PPP, MQM etc that their supporters seem more to be mental slave without having their own say. Now if we do the same in PTI, then there is no difference between them and PTI supporters.
How about KPK? I think PTI is still strong in KPK and I am sure they will again be the single largest party in 2023. It is hard to predict if they will be able to make another government in KPK but it is not out of question. ANP the PTI's main opponent in central KPK (Peshawar, Nowshehra, Swabi, Mardan, Kohat etc) are very weak and it does not look like they will gain much in 2023. If you look at Cantonment board election results PTI got a heavy mandate from KPK. I am not a PTI supporter but cannot keep my eyes away from ground realities.
 

Kavalier

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
How about KPK? I think PTI is still strong in KPK and I am sure they will again be the single largest party in 2023. It is hard to predict if they will be able to make another government in KPK but it is not out of question. ANP the PTI's main opponent in central KPK (Peshawar, Nowshehra, Swabi, Mardan, Kohat etc) are very weak and it does not look like they will gain much in 2023. If you look at Cantonment board election results PTI got a heavy mandate from KPK. I am not a PTI supporter but cannot keep my eyes away from ground realities.

It is more of a "no other choice" thing in KPK, but trust me, common people on ground are cursing the present setup. I am a pTI supporter but the reality is that whole of Hazara region is going to vote Noon, JUI is getting its claws back in South. PTI might become the single largest party somehow, but if the other parties joined hands, they might also form the government.
 

Kavalier

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
How about KPK? I think PTI is still strong in KPK and I am sure they will again be the single largest party in 2023. It is hard to predict if they will be able to make another government in KPK but it is not out of question. ANP the PTI's main opponent in central KPK (Peshawar, Nowshehra, Swabi, Mardan, Kohat etc) are very weak and it does not look like they will gain much in 2023. If you look at Cantonment board election results PTI got a heavy mandate from KPK. I am not a PTI supporter but cannot keep my eyes away from ground realities.

Then there will be some influential independents, who will see which way is the wind blowing and will join that side, in the newly merged FATA, JUI is strong but I guess independents will win at least 60% there
 

iftikharalam

Minister (2k+ posts)
Apna low IQ level show kernai keh liyai yehi forum reh gaya gaya hai? Punjab keh logon ko Kia baighairat samjha hua keh fouj ko galiyaan denai walon ko vite dain gai? BC Sialkot ki apnai stronghold ki apni jeeti hui seat tu bachaa nahin Pai 3 months pehlai, aur Kashmir elections main Punjab keh constituencies sai sab seats haar gai... Pata nahin Kon Kon sai gutter sai nikla ker Yahan posts kernai aa jaatai hain ...
 

iftikharalam

Minister (2k+ posts)
I live in Karachi, and I can bet PTI will again be largest party if there will be free and fair elections. MQM almost evaporated completely from Karachi. It will be around 14-16 Patio seats, rest will be PPP, like 4-5, and 0-2 MQM.
 

Hussain1967

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
نون لیگ کراچی سے دو سیٹیں نکال لے گی اور اتنی ہی اندرون سندھ سے جیت ڈی اے کے ساتھ اتحاد کرکے حاصل
You are right about Karachi but I am not sure about interior Sindh because GDA could manage only two seats for themselves in 2018.

I see that PMLN will win the seats of Shehbaz Sharif and Miftah Ismail from Karachi. Shehbaz lost by 600 votes from clown Vowda, while Miftah lost recent bye elections by few hundred votes and that too through rigging.

PTI might win one seat from Karachi ( that of DHA Katachi, Arif Alvi wali). MQM will win 14 (Mustafa Kamal might snatch one seat from them) and PPP will win remaining 4 seats from Karachi.
 

Resilient

Minister (2k+ posts)
You are right about Karachi but I am not sure about interior Sindh because GDA could manage only two seats for themselves in 2018.

I see that PMLN will win the seats of Shehbaz Sharif and Miftah Ismail from Karachi. Shehbaz lost by 600 votes from clown Vowda, while Miftah lost recent bye elections by few hundred votes and that too through rigging.

PTI might win one seat from Karachi ( that of DHA Katachi, Arif Alvi wali). MQM will win 14 (Mustafa Kamal might snatch one seat from them) and PPP will win remaining 4 seats from Karachi.
جی ڈی اے اور نون لیگ کا ووٹر ایک ہی ہے جبکہ مولانا فضل الرحمن کے پاس بھی اندرون سندھ خاصا ووٹر ہے،پچھلے الیکشن میں جی ڈی اے کو تحریک انصاف کے ساتھ اتحاد سے نقصان ہوا جبکہ اس کا قدرتی اتحادی نون لیگ ہی ہے جو ماضی میں بھی کامیاب رہا دونوں کیلئے
 

farooqak

Minister (2k+ posts)
PTI will again
We are all forgetting overseas votes which will add 10 to 15 thousand votes to PTI in major constituencies of Punjab, Karachi and Peshawar
 

Syaed

MPA (400+ posts)
Some correction:


There are a total of 141 NA seats in Punjab. PMLN is poised to win around 120 seats, PTI will get around 8-10 seats, 6-8 by PPP, and remaining by independents.

KP has 45 NA after the merger of FATA with KP. PTI will get around 20 seats from there. PMLN will get around 8-10 NA seats, and the rest will be won by JUI-F and ANP.

Sindh has 61 NA seats. It will show similar results that were in 2013. That is, PPP and MQM will share major pie. MQM will reclaim its territory from PTI.

Balochistan has 16 NA seats. This will be divided among regional parties.

So, out of total of 272 NA seats, PMLN will 130 plus NA seats at its own and will be poised to form government at its own. JUI-F and ANP are always there to support them.
PTI will not be able to get majority seats from Punjab due to Buzdar and his "vision" but formation of government will still depend upon the performance of PMLQ in Punjab.If they're able to put up a reasonable total,then another coalition term will be possible for the PTI but currently,things are running on auto mode in Punjab and everything has gone back to square one unfortunately.
 

rehan459

MPA (400+ posts)
and that was from whole Pakistan??
Pakistan_General_election_2008.png

 

i_syed2000

Politcal Worker (100+ posts)
jese Hamare paros mein Gaao Mutar aur Gobar khane wale jahil majood hein, ussi terha pakistan mein khotay khane wale jahil patwari majood hein, jin ke aqalo per ALLAH ne talay laga diay howe hein, mujhey being a muslim afsos hota hai k roz e mehshar ye ALLAH ko kya jawab dein gay? najaney kiu ye apne liay jahanam khareed rahe hein,
janab main PTI se hoo, aur mein Imran Khan per hamesha uss k galat iqdaam per tanqeed karta hoo, kiu k mein nazriay ka haami hoo, shaksi ghulaam nahi, mujhey Imran se ziada watan e aziz se pyar hai, aaj imran khan hai kal koi aur ho ga,
aap nawaz sharif k tamaam jhoot dhokay fraud aik taraf rakh dein, sirf aik sawal jis ka jawab aap ko mil chuka hai k nawaz sharif poori qoum se jhoot bol ker darama ker k jail ke saza se dur k bhaag gaya, ye kesa leader hai yaar? kal ko agar hamari kisi dushman mulk se jung ho jaey to sochiay agar ye hukmaran howa jisse apni zindagi aziz hai jisse apna maal o dolat aziz hai wo iss watan e aziz ko ussi terha chor k bhaag jaey ga jese ashraf ghani,
yaar aap logo ko kya ho gaya hai, kiu aap log haqeeqat samjhne se qasir hein, aap bhalle he Imran Khan ka saath na dein, but please being a muslim aik jhootay ka, makkar ka, dhokay baaz ka, model town k qatilo ka, buzdil insan ka to saath na dein kam az kam.
Well said. Hopefully our public is not giving ears to these corrupt thugs. There is no better option for people but PTI and Imran khan. Yes, there are hardships. But atleast we are seeing honest efforts by the leadership to resolve them and bring relief to the people. I will be disheartened if people buy the lies of this opportunist corrupt opposition.
 

Awan S

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Then there will be some influential independents, who will see which way is the wind blowing and will join that side, in the newly merged FATA, JUI is strong but I guess independents will win at least 60% there
No, it is PTI vote bank there, and reason is not performance but nationalism. Pathans vote Khan because they think that such a big person is their Pathan (Khan). It will not be a cake walk win for PTI again likes of 2018 and PTI will lose ground for sure but still they are likely to be a single largest party in the province. KPK politics is different than Punjab as it has a lot of regional parties. JUI(F) has its stronghold from Mardan to D.I.Khan although they have some vote in each and every constituency of KPK. JI is strong in Upper & Lower Dir; similar to JUI(F) they have some vote in other areas as well. PML(N) is strong in Hazara Division. ANP's strong hold is Peshawar, Mardan, Nowshehra, Mardan & Swat which has the largest seats compare to other zones. Charsada is stronghold of Aftab Sherpao's party. PTI is not a regional party; it competes with every other regional party in their strong holds. They are likely to gain more seats as they have vote bank in entire KPK. KPK has became a Sindh of PTI and does not matter what happens they will win there. It is still not sure that they may form a government in KPK next despite being the single largest party. If they win for example 35% seats with single largest party then all other 5 parties will join hands to make a coalition government as all others are against PTI.
 

Awan S

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
I live in Karachi, and I can bet PTI will again be largest party if there will be free and fair elections. MQM almost evaporated completely from Karachi. It will be around 14-16 Patio seats, rest will be PPP, like 4-5, and 0-2 MQM.
Dont' forget PTI was number 5 on Faisal Wada's left over seat. It is a pathan majority area and all other parties except PML(N) nominated a pathan in that area. Even PPP nominated a pathan on this seat and won the seat. All pathan majority areas areas are stronghold of PTI and if they are number 5 on their own left seat and in Pathan area then what will happen in Urdu & Sindhi speaking majority areas?
 

ProPakistanii

MPA (400+ posts)
Patwari brain fart?

Another Sharif's pilla spotted. Your fat fart leadership deserves only zalalat. Keep dreaming and licking A******.

تم مجھے 70-65 سال کے کوئی سڑے ہوئے پٹواری لگتے ہو اِس لئے میانداد کے شارجہ میچ کے آخری بال پر چھّکا تو تجھے ضرور یاد ہو گا
ابھی فی الحال 35 اوورز کا میچ ہو چکا ہے،،، کپتان آخری اوورز میں سرپرائز دینے کے لئے مشہور ہے
میانداد کی طرح آخری گیند پر چھکے سے بہت پہلے وہ یہ میچ جیت کر دکھائے گا

یہ آپکو ھزارمیں سے ھزار دفعہ غلط ثابت کرے گا ۔ ۔ ۔
Rameez Raja about Imran Khan
He will succeed,, He is bound to succeed


Why are you all cursing each other? what is the beauty of democrazy? to have a difference of opinion. Live in harmony by keeping politics a side business. only in Pakistan people hate and love based on political affiliations.
 

Awan S

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
PTI will again
We are all forgetting overseas votes which will add 10 to 15 thousand votes to PTI in major constituencies of Punjab, Karachi and Peshawar
Even with overseas vote it will not make much difference as difference will be huge. All overseas vote is not PTI. PTI is dominant in western countries and PML(N) is strong in middle east like Saudia, UAE, Qatar etc. There are way more Pakistanis in Middle-east than western countries. Middle eastern Pakistanis don't have families with them and they send money monthly basis and are impacted by inflation like the people in Pakistan. There will not be any vote for overseas Pakistanis as it cannot be ensured that if vote was cast by that individual or not. There is no example of out of country voting in the world. Out of Country voting is only possible through internet and millions of Pakistanis living in middle east are labour class and they have never used computer or internet. If for example they arrange voting in high commission/embassy then may be only 10% will vote as embassies cover a large area and no one will travel by air to cast a vote.
 
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