Next elections: A prediction

Terminator;

Senator (1k+ posts)
Bahi ji´tna mayn chahata hoon k Khan saab kamyab hon, utna shayad Khan saab khud bhi nhi chahtay hongay lakn iska hargiz yeh matlab nhi k mayn Din ko raat aur raat ko din kehna start kardoon. Jo on ground realities hayn, wo bata di hayn, baqi game sari 1 saal ki hi hay, agar zindagi rehi tou dekh layn gay sab. Doosra factor fouj ka bhi hay jismayn 1 ya 2 jurnailon k change honay say Pakistan ki sari politics hi change ho jati hay, wo bhi nazar mayn rehay, jis fouj k jurnelon say shor sharaba aur pressure dal k NS ko bahir bhijwa diya hay uss say khud andaza laga lo k unmayn kitna dam hay.

Wo last ball chakka 1 hi baar laga tha, roz roz nhi lagty.

baqi agar mayn 65/70 saal ka hoon bhi tou thori respect say baat karlo ya apnay walidain say bhi aisay hi baat karty ho??
جی جی پٹواری صاحب،،،، اِس کا اندازہ پیڈ پٹواریوں کی
کپتان کو گالیاں دینے والی پوسٹوں پر تمہارے "لائیکس" سے بخوبی ہو رہا ہے
 
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rehan459

MPA (400+ posts)
Could have been an option but the problem is Punjab, none of these two will have any say in Punjab and without winning anything in Punjab, it seems nearly an impossible situation , even for all parties together against noon.
70 seats can be managed in Punjab that will be enough to complete the figure of 171
MQM, ANP, Q league, F league, independents will follow
 

ranaji

President (40k+ posts)

عزت مآب چیف الیکشن کمشنر صاحب نے الیکشن سے دو سال پہلے ہی نتائج کا اعلان کر دیا . واؤ

اے کوئی نویں سئینس اے ؟؟؟
🤔
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
کیا بہتر نہُ ہوتا پی ٹیُ آئی کی جو اتنی زیادہ سیٹیں بتائی ہیں وہ اتنا
ایگزیجو ریٹ
نہ کیا جاتا 😂😂😂😂😂
 

Kill_Ego

Councller (250+ posts)
Keeping in view the present situation on ground and the public opinion, following seems to be pretty much clear:

PMLN : 150 in Punjab , 2 in Sindh, 4 in Balochistan and 8/9 in KPK .... Total around: 165-170 (might get a few independents/Lotas/MQM/Achakzai/Fazlu and form 2/3rd Majority)
PPP: 50 in Sindh, 2/3 Balochistan, 1/2 in Punjab and 2/3 in KPK .... Total around: 56/57
PTI: 15/16 in Punjab, 20/22 in KPK, 0/1 in Balochistan and 0/1 in Sindh (Karachi). Total around: 36/37 seats
What happened in Daska elections few months ago and this inflation spike will come down in few months as its a international phenomena. As for as Governance is concerned yes they need to improve but in Punjab PTI is dealing with 30 years of PML-N BS. Vote only for PTI.
 

Fawad Javed

Minister (2k+ posts)
Keeping in view the present situation on ground and the public opinion, following seems to be pretty much clear:

PMLN : 150 in Punjab , 2 in Sindh, 4 in Balochistan and 8/9 in KPK .... Total around: 165-170 (might get a few independents/Lotas/MQM/Achakzai/Fazlu and form 2/3rd Majority)
PPP: 50 in Sindh, 2/3 Balochistan, 1/2 in Punjab and 2/3 in KPK .... Total around: 56/57
PTI: 15/16 in Punjab, 20/22 in KPK, 0/1 in Balochistan and 0/1 in Sindh (Karachi). Total around: 36/37 seats
aur ankh khol jaye ge
 

Awan S

Minister (2k+ posts)
Some correction:


There are a total of 141 NA seats in Punjab. PMLN is poised to win around 120 seats, PTI will get around 8-10 seats, 6-8 by PPP, and remaining by independents.

KP has 45 NA after the merger of FATA with KP. PTI will get around 20 seats from there. PMLN will get around 8-10 NA seats, and the rest will be won by JUI-F and ANP.

Sindh has 61 NA seats. It will show similar results that were in 2013. That is, PPP and MQM will share major pie. MQM will reclaim its territory from PTI.

Balochistan has 16 NA seats. This will be divided among regional parties.

So, out of total of 272 NA seats, PMLN will 130 plus NA seats at its own and will be poised to form government at its own. JUI-F and ANP are always there to support them.
I think your prediction is better than thread starter. PML(N) can win anywhere between 110 to 130. PTI is likely to go back to their 2013 election results however they may get few more seats than 2013 as they got almost nothing from Punjab in 2013. I think PTI seats from Punjab were approximately 6-7 in 2013 and they may get up to 15 from Punjab alone in next elections. PTI is still strong in KPK and will easily be single largest party there. They may still form a government in KPK. It is mainly because their main opponent ANP & JI are very weak. PML(N) & JUI will get their fair share in KPK but it does not look like ANP & JI will gain much. PML(N) will make Punjab government in comfortable position. PPP in Sindh is again likely to form a provincial government. There will again be a coalition government in Baluchistan with PML(N), JUI(F) & nationalist will gain and BAP & PTI will lose grounds.
 

Awan S

Minister (2k+ posts)
70 seats can be managed in Punjab that will be enough to complete the figure of 171
MQM, ANP, Q league, F league, independents will follow
I don't think establishment will manage elections this time. They will be afraid that if their managed government fails they will be heavily abused again. I think establishment will start negotiating with PML(N) right now and they have no problem with Shahbaz Sharif being PM. The main issue will be let Nawaz's back to Pakistan by removing all cases and main negotiations will be on that and civil military relationship in future.
 

Hussain1967

Minister (2k+ posts)
I think your prediction is better than thread starter. PML(N) can win anywhere between 110 to 130. PTI is likely to go back to their 2013 election results however they may get few more seats than 2013 as they got almost nothing from Punjab in 2013. I think PTI seats from Punjab were approximately 6-7 in 2013 and they may get up to 15 from Punjab alone in next elections. PTI is still strong in KPK and will easily be single largest party there. They may still form a government in KPK. It is mainly because their main opponent ANP & JI are very weak. PML(N) & JUI will get their fair share in KPK but it does not look like ANP & JI will gain much. PML(N) will make Punjab government in comfortable position. PPP in Sindh is again likely to form a provincial government. There will again be a coalition government in Baluchistan with PML(N), JUI(F) & nationalist will gain and BAP & PTI will lose grounds.
When I envision all NA
in Punjab ( and I have all of them floating in front of me in my mind), I am unable to find even 8-10 seats for PTI in Punjab. PTI won 8 NA seats from Punjab in 2013. PTI’s position in South Punjab was much better in 2013 than it is now. Proof is recent result of Cantonment elections of Multan where PTI was wiped out.

MQM will reclaim Karachi from PTI.

Note: I physically reside in Punjab and meet people from different cities of Punjab. Apart from Center’s bad economic policies that resulted in inflation/price-hike, the main reason of PTI’s very weak position in Punjab is Mujawar CM Buzdar.
 

Kavalier

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
70 seats can be managed in Punjab that will be enough to complete the figure of 171
MQM, ANP, Q league, F league, independents will follow
Come on, 70 seats are a lot, had it been 15/20, one could have imagined but 70 is like half Punjab, that seems very far fetched
 

Kavalier

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
I don't think establishment will manage elections this time. They will be afraid that if their managed government fails they will be heavily abused again. I think establishment will start negotiating with PML(N) right now and they have no problem with Shahbaz Sharif being PM. The main issue will be let Nawaz's back to Pakistan by removing all cases and main negotiations will be on that and civil military relationship in future.

And knowing our Generals, this will happen, they will not only bring him back but will also exonerate him from all his crimes, might ask for not being PM in return. Even though he may sit behind a puppet PM and call the shots like Zardari did.
 

aadil jahangeer

Minister (2k+ posts)

عزت مآب چیف الیکشن کمشنر صاحب نے الیکشن سے دو سال پہلے ہی نتائج کا اعلان کر دیا . واؤ

اے کوئی نویں سئینس اے ؟؟؟
🤔
بھائی کو رات کو خواب آیا تھا ،صبح اٹھے تو پاجامہ گیلا تھا،کسی نے مست ڈکلئیر کر دیا تب سے بھائی ہر دس منٹ بعد پیش گوئیاں فرما رہے ہیں ۔۔
 

Saboo

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
All those who are posting here are either talking without any ground realities check or are being paid to do so (can be for or against PTI). I was at the ground level, in different places of Punjab and KPK and can say very safely that PTI will lose 80% of their seats which they won in 2018, the rest 20% will also be those where there is candidate's own inherited or bought out seats.

Some are calling me Patwari, without knowing that I have been a staunch PTI supporter even then when they were no where to be seen. As a proof one can see my posts from 2011 onwards on this very forum. But again I was/am a supporter and not a mental slave. This was what we did not like in PMLN and PPP, MQM etc that their supporters seem more to be mental slave without having their own say. Now if we do the same in PTI, then there is no difference between them and PTI supporters.
OK here is a simple test to find out if you are a patwari or not? If your wife constantly complaining that your kid is always crying for a mangoe and you never buys him one…..then for sure you are a patwari….. 😁
Vay tun kahdi patwari jay munda mera roway umb non?
وے توں کاہدہ پٹواری جے منڈا تیرا رووے امب نوں؟….🤣
 

Awan S

Minister (2k+ posts)
And knowing our Generals, this will happen, they will not only bring him back but will also exonerate him from all his crimes, might ask for not being PM in return. Even though he may sit behind a puppet PM and call the shots like Zardari did.
PML(N) will never be a puppet of establishment as long as Nawaz is alive. Even Shahbaz Sharif being PM, there will be a good working relationship but not as puppet as Khan. Any government cannot survive without a good working relationship with military, Nawaz has lost three governments on this.
 

Awan S

Minister (2k+ posts)
When I envision all NA
in Punjab ( and I have all of them floating in front of me in my mind), I am unable to find even 8-10 seats for PTI in Punjab. PTI won 8 NA seats from Punjab in 2013. PTI’s position in South Punjab was much better in 2013 than it is now. Proof is recent result of Cantonment elections of Multan where PTI was wiped out.

MQM will reclaim Karachi from PTI.

Note: I physically reside in Punjab and meet people from different cities of Punjab. Apart from Center’s bad economic policies that resulted in inflation/price-hike, the main reason of PTI’s very weak position in Punjab is Mujawar CM Buzdar.
You have better judgement of things as I do not live in Pakistan. when a government is in power for 5 years then they leave some marks and PTI is unlikely to be completely wiped out from Punjab. Pathans almost 100% vote for PTI and they are in big numbers in west Punjab (close to Rawalpindi-Islamabad). If PTI have not got anything in Multan cantonment elections, same is for PML(N). PML(N) only won 1 seat out of 10 in Multan. Bahawalpur was close with 3-2 in favour of PML(N). I think South and West Punjab are best bet for PTI to win some some seats. We still have almost 2 years and lot of development project may improve PTI position in Punjab a bit. It is too early to predict exact number of seats in 2023 election however we can predict if election were to held tomorrow.
 

rehan459

MPA (400+ posts)
Come on, 70 seats are a lot, had it been 15/20, one could have imagined but 70 is like half Punjab, that seems very far fetched
I know 70 is a lot but PTI will not nosedive after one election 2023 result will be like 2008 election and PTI will replace Q-league
 
All the friends are commenting by their political affiliations but next election will be the real test of pakistani nation, either they want to keep self respect and honour or our political thinking start from mouth and ends at tummy. whatever going around us at international level is the start of this game.
 
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