Pakistan is going to downgraded to Frontier Market from Emerging Market.

[Doom1111]

MSCI to launch a consultation on potential reclassification of MSCI #Pakistan Index from Emerging to Frontier Markets status.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408264324301328384

In simple, reason they are saying that we do not qualify for the market bases we do not have enough dollar value in our stock market that we can avail status quo. So there, they will downgrade us due to lack of dollar in our stock market.

Now PTI guys can give how it is related to 19 billion dollar CAD but even IMF not buy PTI bullshit only Siasat.PK will defend it like a religion.


it is serious learn from Sri Lanka how a default nation, which has less than 4 billion dollar reserve ,which has mostly based on Swap is running better than us and going to be upgraded in the market.

 

[Nice2MU]

اللہ تعالیٰ اس بندے کو صحت کاملہ عطا فرمائے آمین۔ بہت تکلیف میں ہے بیچارہ۔

 

[miafridi]

MSCI to launch a consultation on potential reclassification of MSCI #Pakistan Index from Emerging to Frontier Markets status.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408264324301328384

In simple, reason they are saying that we do not qualify for the market bases we do not have enough dollar value in our stock market that we can avail status quo. So there, they will downgrade us due to lack of dollar in our stock market.

Now PTI guys can give how it is related to 19 billion dollar CAD but even IMF not buy PTI bullshit only Siasat.PK will defend it like a religion.


it is serious learn from Sri Lanka how a default nation, which has less than 4 billion dollar reserve ,which has mostly based on Swap is running better than us and going to be upgraded in the market.

First of all $4 billion reserves of Sri Lanka is better than $23 billion reserves of Pakistan considering the difference between the population and size of both countries.

2ndly, as far as I have understood there is probably some change in the classification/rules now and countries are now gauged based on those new classification/rules, so although Pakistan has better reserves now as compared to 2018-19, the new rules might exclude Pakistan from that list based on the fact that most of the reserves are loans(short and long term).

Lastly, Yes whenever you talk about economy the $19 billion CAD will always be relevant because it is the sole reason Pakistan had to take more than $10 billion yearly loan for the past few years just to balance this amount, which is why your reserves are still in negative and Pakistan is still in a kind of debt trap.

 

[Doom1111]

First of all $4 billion reserves of Sri Lanka is better than $23 billion reserves of Pakistan considering the difference between the population and size of both countries.

2ndly, as far as I have understood there is probably some change in the classification/rules now and countries are now gauged based on those new classification/rules, so although Pakistan has better reserves now as compared to 2018-19, the new rules might exclude Pakistan from that list.

Lastly, Yes whenever you talk about economy the $19 billion CAD will always be relevant because it is the sole reason Pakistan had to take more than $10 billion yearly loan for the past few years just to balance this amount, which is why your reserves are still in negative and Pakistan is still in a kind of debt trap.

Sir it is not talking about reserve or etc. It is because of PSX. It is not Pakistan is downgrading but PSX as whole. It is due to that our Rupee has not strength to cover the $ required for our market to be considered as a EM market. We require at least 75 billion dollar market but right now Pakistan is 48 billion dollar but it was used to be 110 billion dollar market in 2017.

 

[miafridi]

Sir it is not talking about reserve or etc. It is because of PSX. It is not Pakistan is downgrading but PSX as whole. It is due to that our Rupee has not strength to cover the $ required for our market to be considered as a EM market. We require at least 75 billion dollar market but right now Pakistan is 48 billion dollar but it was used to be 110 billion dollar market in 2017.

Where can we find the source for Pakistan to be at $110 in 2017 and $48 billion right now? And do you think Rupee depreciation caused some of this decrease if not all? in 2017 $ was valued at Rs105, which is now 158, almost 50% depreciation. So do you think this 50% depreciated is reflected in the decrease from $110 to $48 as well?

 

[Doom1111]

Where can we find the source for Pakistan to be at $110 in 2017 and $48 billion right now? And do you think Rupee depreciation caused some of this decrease if not all? in 2017 $ was valued at Rs105, which is now 158, almost 50% depreciation. So do you think this 50% depreciated is reflected in the decrease from $110 to $48 as well?

No it is not. You go there website and it the reason is lack of investment. Since 2018, Foreign has taken out 4 billion dollar from our stock market and it only going negative to 150 million dollar every month in SCRA SBP account ,which is only way that a foreigner can invest in Pakistan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408292573450588161

He mentioned that PKR stability is the key, which is gone in PTI era.

It started to happen because Mufta devalued the currency fast and still happening in PTI. Outsiders like stability not Jokes and fantasy and blame game.

 

[Doom1111]

Where can we find the source for Pakistan to be at $110 in 2017 and $48 billion right now? And do you think Rupee depreciation caused some of this decrease if not all? in 2017 $ was valued at Rs105, which is now 158, almost 50% depreciation. So do you think this 50% depreciated is reflected in the decrease from $110 to $48 as well?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1396719287641903104

 

[AhmadSaleem264]

Stock market is not an indicator of economy

 

[Doom1111]

Stock market is not an indicator of economy

Stock is the sole thing that look give market status. Our market has been downhill not only due to PTI but also lack of their progress. It mentions that SECP has de listed 60300 companies, which were all foreigner investor and taken out 7 billion dollar alone from the stock market via selling since 2018 and continues till now.

 

[miafridi]

No it is not. You go there website and it the reason is lack of investment. Since 2018, Foreign has taken out 4 billion dollar from our stock market and it only going negative to 150 million dollar every month in SCRA SBP account ,which is only way that a foreigner can invest in Pakistan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408292573450588161

He mentioned that PKR stability is the key, which is gone in PTI era.

It started to happen because Mufta devalued the currency fast and still happening in PTI. Outsiders like stability not Jokes and fantasy and blame game.

Aren't you contradicting yourself in the same comment? At one hand You are saying that Rupee depreciation had nothing to do with it, but at the other hand you are saying PKR stability is the key, and this happened because of Rupee devaluation.


2ndly, how do you intend to keep the dollar stable without having any dollars to throw in the market? But in fact you need more dollars for your own affairs let alone throwing some dollars in the market, which is why the blame goes to PML-N for $20 billion current account deficit because without that deficit Pakistan would have enough dollars to not need devaluation and more loans.

 

[Doom1111]

Aren't you contradicting yourself in the same comment? At one hand You are saying that Rupee depreciation had nothing to do with it, but at the other hand you are saying PKR stability is the key, and this happened because of Rupee devaluation.


2ndly, how do you intend to keep the dollar stable without having any dollars to throw in the market? But in fact you need more dollars for your own affairs let alone throwing some dollars in the market, which is why the blame goes to PML-N for $20 billion current account deficit because without that deficit Pakistan would have enough dollars to not need devaluation and more loans.

I repeat my self Rupee devaluation led to this started from Mufta and till PTI.


How to stop negative and avail stability is learn from Sri Lanka.

CAD is never going to in control with Market base currency.

What will control it?

Tariff, ban imports, ban luxury like Sri Lanka did. Bangladesh did it in 2005 and India did it in 1992 till 2005.

For India how they banned imports to avail 15 billion dollar saving see 1992 Scam TV series.

 

[miafridi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1396719287641903104

Thank you for the correct figures now, and as you mentioned in your other post that PKR value has much to do with the market capitalization, so is it not safe to say that most of this decline has come automatically through rupee devolution. In simple words if you have 105 rupees your market value was $1 in 2017, but in 2021 the same 105 rupees are valued as $0.66. So it it was $100 billion it became $66 billion just with devaluation.

 

[miafridi]

I repeat my self Rupee devaluation led to this started from Mufta and till PTI.


How to stop negative and avail stability is learn from Sri Lanka.

CAD is never going to in control with Market base currency.

What will control it?

Tariff, ban imports, ban luxury like Sri Lanka did. Bangladesh did it in 2005 and India did it in 1992 till 2005.

For India how they banned imports to avail 15 billion dollar saving see 1992 Scam TV series.

You don't have to repeat, just don't be contradictory please. So here is my 2nd question.

PTI did curb imports, increased exports, increased tariffs, increased revenue. So all the steps you are talking about were already done by PTI.

Now you tell me, how do you blame PTI? who needed immediate loan of $12-$14 billion to balance the account right after assuming power? Could they refuse to take this loan and make Pakistan defaulter? And could they stop rupee devaluation without having dollars? What is your formula?

 

[Doom1111]

Thank you for the correct figures now, and as you mentioned in your other post that PKR value has much to do with the market capitalization, so is it not safe to say that most of this decline has come automatically through rupee devolution. In simple words if you have 105 rupees your market value was $1 in 2017, but in 2021 the same 105 rupees are valued as $0.66. So it it was $100 billion it became $66 billion just with devaluation.

You see Sohail interview with Geo on budget point view. He said we are at worst situation right now than 2018 because SCRA going in a loss and we are losing 1.5 billion dollar yearly in stock because investors are taking out money very fast. The only way to control is that we need to downgrade our self rather than a agency downgrade us.

He said if we downgrade our stock market than 1 big problem is that 20% stock market value will be gone in a sec meaning that we will lose around 4 to 5 billion dollar in stock market with a second.

So he asked FM directly that we should downgrade our self gradually and let market takeout money easily so that it does not effect our rupee .

He said it will take around 4 to 5 years now to Pakistan to get EM status and he said i told PM Khan in 2018 than we will be downgraded because Investors has lost trust in us and stable PKR is the key to all investment. Until, investors do not trust PKR they will takeout their money via SCRA and it will impact PSX.

So now Downgrade is the only way to save Reserve and let capital control take action.

 

[Doom1111]

You don't have to repeat, just don't be contradictory please. So here is my 2nd question.

PTI did curb imports, increased exports, increased tariffs, increased revenue. So all the steps you are talking about were already done by PTI.

Now you tell me, how do you blame PTI? who needed immediate loan of $12-$14 billion to balance the account right after assuming power? Could they refuse to take this loan and make Pakistan defaulter? And could they stop rupee devaluation without having dollars? What is your formula?

PTI did not ban imports. India banned expensive cars, home appliances, expensive TV, Old Phones.

Just watch 1992 Scam and how India banned 80% of all luxury items and usable daily item.

 

[miafridi]

PTI did not ban imports. India banned expensive cars, home appliances, expensive TV, Old Phones.

Just watch 1992 Scam and how India banned 80% of all luxury items and usable daily item.

Ok 3 questions for you.

- Are you sure PTI didn't ban any imports? Can you support this fact with data? Because as far as I know there were major curbs on imports which is why Current account improved significantly.

- Could PTI refuse to take $12-$14 billion immediate loan required?

- How could the Rupee be kept stable without having dollars(and needing even more dollars just for CAD)?

 

[Doom1111]

Ok 3 questions for you.

- Are you sure PTI didn't ban any imports? Can you support this fact with data? Because as far as I know there were major curbs on imports which is why Current account improved significantly.

- Could PTI refuse to take $12-$14 billion immediate loan required?

- How could the Rupee be kept stable without having dollars(and needing even more dollars just for CAD)?

Only way to control is that you control imports.

If banned imports than how you have people driving new luxury cars, having Iphone selling shops and much expensive home appliances etc. ?

1.25-1.5 billion dollar is for energy import,

700 million for eatable Oil

500-700 million for Raw materiel imports

The question is where does rest of more than 2 billion imports are spend on?

 

[Will_Bite]

MSCI to launch a consultation on potential reclassification of MSCI #Pakistan Index from Emerging to Frontier Markets status.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408264324301328384

In simple, reason they are saying that we do not qualify for the market bases we do not have enough dollar value in our stock market that we can avail status quo. So there, they will downgrade us due to lack of dollar in our stock market.

Now PTI guys can give how it is related to 19 billion dollar CAD but even IMF not buy PTI bullshit only Siasat.PK will defend it like a religion.


it is serious learn from Sri Lanka how a default nation, which has less than 4 billion dollar reserve ,which has mostly based on Swap is running better than us and going to be upgraded in the market.

This is something PSX and Pak investors had been hoping for a long time. With such a small market cap, PSX was a small fry when it came to emerging market funds. The result was that foreign investors pulled out, mainly due to the small percentage value of PSX in emerging market funds.
Going back to frontier markets will make PSX more prominent..and attract investor attention.
Opposition will have a field day with this due to their parchi system, but thats how it works.

 

[Doom1111]

This is something PSX and Pak investors had been hoping for a long time. With such a small market cap, PSX was a small fry when it came to emerging market funds. The result was that foreign investors pulled out, mainly due to the small percentage value of PSX in emerging market funds.
Going back to frontier markets will make PSX more prominent..and attract investor attention.
Opposition will have a field day with this due to their parchi system, but thats how it works.

It will not until we have market base currency. We cannot sustain it due to all our industry and investment is related to dollar and it make a big impact.

We cannot do things like make in Pakistan because investors will never trust PKR now.

 

[Will_Bite]

It will not until we have market base currency. We cannot sustain it due to all our industry and investment is related to dollar and it make a big impact.

We cannot do things like make in Pakistan because investors will never trust PKR now.

I honestly didnt get what you said. But this has nothing to do with the decision to downgrade.
There will be several different reasons given by different quarters....with everyone satisfying their ego.
At the end of the day, it is a good decision for the market, and good for attracting PSX investment in USD. Prominence plays a big role in how markets are viewed. THats what has happened here.