Moon Sighting- The So Called Calculation vs Actual Sighting Debate

[talkingbird2009]

*****Attention Moderator ******: Please do not move my thread to islamic section. My thread has nothing to do with any religion but is a scientific debate and has nothing to do with the azerbaijan Islamic section thread where you previously moved it to.
Thank you for your understanding


Salam All,

You will hear a lot of semi literate people bragging about " Science taraqi ker gaye hayu jenab hamein CHand ub dekhne kee zaroorat nahi " and that it can be found out by formulas etc etc....

Lets dicuss on which approach is best on scientific grounds and not religious. Is it really posssible to determine visibility of the moon by a formula like E = MC*C or F = ma....Does that moon sighting formula really exisit. Let me eloborate on the discussion as under :

First of all , please note that there is no such formula that can pinpoint the visibility of the moon. Be reminded that the islamic calender depends on the visibility of moon and not on the geographical coordinates of the moon. Moreover these formulas use historical data as stem for the forecasting for instance let say that

In 1989 on the 5th day of July it rained 60 mm in New York
In 1990 on the 5th day of July it rained 75 mm in New York
In 1991 on the 5th day of July it rained 2 mm in New York

What are the chances of rainfall in NY in 2013 on the 5th day of July? Now what they do is that based on the historic data the model will interpolate the historical points and project a probability for year 2013. The big question is would that be accurate? No...its just a forecast and may happen that there would not be any rainfall during the 5th day of of July in 2013.

I can understand that most people of this forum do not have a scientific background and would not be able to understand the core of my argument. The Moon is always there it never disappears or appears but it is the amount of sunlight it reflects that makes it either visible ( half, full or New) or invisible. The visibility not only depends on the coordinates ( position of the moon ) with respect to Planet earth but also on other factors like the intensity of solar radiations , atmospheric disturbances , geographical altitude and angle of inclination of the observatory .

Trust me there is no so formula that can predict the visibility of the moon with 100 percent accuracy. These are just forecasts and most laymans are easily decieved " O gggg Science taraqii ker gaye hay ub to formula say chand nazur ajata hay" this logic is all crap and good for half baked semi literate people.


In the End I Give you guys an exercise for brainstorming that might help you understand the issue :

Let say that you are following an XYZ religion and there is a ritual that you are ordained by God to be formed only when it rains. Now This Scientific Weather Man appears on TV and shows you a radar Map and predicts/forecasts rain with 60 % probability on the coming Friday evening . Now what would you do and what is more accurate to you?

1. Do the ritual assuming that the 60 percent accuracy is good enough or......

2. if you are really intelligent you wait for the day when it actually rains and then you celebrate your ritual


From the above example it is very clear...that these models are not very accurate . Exact science is " two molecules of Hydrogen combines with 1 mole of oxygen to form one molecule of water but forecasting? you cannot be sure unless it rains the weather report might tell the percentage of chances like 60 - 70 % or 40 % but if the criteria of the fast is " You fast when it rains" then would u fast just on the report that today the chances of precipitation are 60 %? but intelligent ones would wait for the actual rain to happen and then fast. So is the case with visibility of moon. You have to see it...the moon has to be visible we cannot rely on these forecast models and the reason is that these are based on models which in turn are based on historical timeline data.


My Open Challenge to ISNA and Wahabies :

Please provide me with your Lunar Calculation formula along with variables and timeline data and we will see what you guys got in your baskets!
​

 

[talkingbird2009]

Wah Koi Google kerkay bhee wo forumula nahi nikaal saka? Where is the calculation or the forumula some people brag about so much! Formula kahaan hay yaaro?

 

[Liberal.Punjabi]

Chances of moon-sighting on Thursday extremely high: Met Department


The Pakistan Meteorological Department has said that chances of sighting the moon on Thursday night were extremely high in both Sindh and Balochistan, Express News reported.

According to the Met department, chances of Eidul Fitr taking place on Friday, August 9, were a 100 percent.

The Met department said that the moon would be clearly sighted in interior areas of Sindh including Hyderabad and Karachi. Chances of sighting the moon in Punjab on August 8 were 50 percent, the department said.

Pakistan will celebrate Eidul Fitr on August 9 if the moon is sighted on August 8.

The Ruet-e-Hilal Committee will formally convene on August 8 for the sighting of the Eid-ul-Fitr moon.

 

[talkingbird2009]

Ok let me help you guys further. A formula is a mathematical calulation involving certain known variables and constant and the variable to be calculated. For instance "

A cylinder with radius r units and height h units has a volume of V cubic units given by :

Can you now please typle the formula for lunar sighting. So all of us can calculate and play with it!
​

 

[talkingbird2009]

Chances of moon-sighting on Thursday extremely high: Met Department


The Pakistan Meteorological Department has said that chances of sighting the moon on Thursday night were extremely high in both Sindh and Balochistan, Express News reported.

According to the Met department, chances of Eidul Fitr taking place on Friday, August 9, were a 100 percent.

The Met department said that the moon would be clearly sighted in interior areas of Sindh including Hyderabad and Karachi. Chances of sighting the moon in Punjab on August 8 were 50 percent, the department said.

Pakistan will celebrate Eidul Fitr on August 9 if the moon is sighted on August 8.

The Ruet-e-Hilal Committee will formally convene on August 8 for the sighting of the Eid-ul-Fitr moon.

I see ! So there is no scientific foruma? its all about probability?:lol:

 

[talkingbird2009]

I agreed 100 0/0.

Thank you sir. What pissed me was that even highschoolers and these matric fails were yelling Formula G formula, calculation gee Calculation .Ub aap dekho I have experience of doing meterological modelling such as rainfall and runoff models and also have studied Spherecal trigonometry in relation to heavinly objects during my graduate studies. Hamein to pata hay kay such formulas and calculations are non existant per yeh log shor machatay thay thats why I have challenged all of them to present me with the equation with all the variables and constants and so far nobody can provide any calculation.

As I said earlier its all probability and percengate forecasting which can be very errorneous. Lekin Bhai Log samagh nahi pate!

 

[Technocrat]

Thank you sir. What pissed me was that even highschoolers and these matric fails were yelling Formula G formula, calculation gee Calculation .Ub aap dekho I have experience of doing meterological modelling such as rainfall and runoff models and also have studied Spherecal trigonometry in relation to heavinly objects during my graduate studies. Hamein to pata hay kay such formulas and calculations are non existant per yeh log shor machatay thay thats why I have challenged all of them to present me with the equation with all the variables and constants and so far nobody can provide any calculation.

As I said earlier its all probability and percengate forecasting which can be very errorneous. Lekin Bhai Log samagh nahi pate!

Wrong platform to ask. I would prefer that you ask this on a lunar forum and then paste the relevant replies here. But I do agree, there are too many variables, therefore, scientific way should be used when there is cloud cover or weather related hazards.

 

[NasNY]

BloteeChirya420 , blotee baht hai likin kaam ka kuch nahee nikal ta.

Below will be the position of the moon and the visible curve. on August 7 2013. - 9:52 PM

Please get off your Lazy @ss and go out and look for yourself.

It is impossible to be visible on August 7 anywhere in Asia. Even though the New moon will be out. August 8th according to visibility. Therefore Eid should fall on August 9th

It is recomended for all to be out on August 8 and make Dua.

 

[talkingbird2009]

BloteeChirya420 , blotee baht hai likin kaam ka kuch nahee nikal ta.

Below will be the position of the moon and the visible curve. on August 7 2013. - 9:52 PM

Please get off your Lazy @ss and look for yourself.

This is just like a weather map and is based on position of the moon . I repeat its not the position but the Visibility of the moon that decided the Lunar Calender.

Do you understand the difference between the Position/Path and the Visibility?

The Visibility does depend on the position of the moon but there are other variables involved too.


The Map you pasted above is non conclusive and is analogous to weather Map

I am asking you of the calculation or the formula. Can you Kindly provide us with that?

 

[talkingbird2009]

VISIBILITY Of MOON and Not the Position or Path of the Moon Sir Jeee

Position/path of the Moon is one of the variable on which the Visibility Depends but there are other variables too . Why are those other variables like " Solar Radiaions " , Reflection of Light, Atmospherice Conditions, Altitude, Angle of inclination of the observatory and other unknows not taken into consideration?

Yeh to koi bara hee nakus criteria hay which is developed by Mr Fauzi Kayali. Did Fauzi Kayali sumitted this for peer view on an academic level. Ever got published on any scientific journal?

 

[talkingbird2009]

Also please note that

We know exactly where the Moon is in the sky - the question is can we see it with our eyes or with an optical aid?" The new Moon occurs after sunset within three days of the new lunar month - but the timing depends on the relative positions of the Sun, the Moon and the observer and also the Data on the Moon's visibility mostly comes from sightings at more southerly latitudes, including the US. But these predictions are not accurate for Europe, hence the whole project and even if its just the US, its still errorneous and cannot be followed . Forecast is a forecast!

 

[NasNY]

This is just like a weather map and is based on position of the moon . I repeat its not the position but the Visibility of the moon that decided the Lunar Calender.

Do you understand the difference between the Position/Path and the Visibility?

The Visibility does depend on the position of the moon but there are other variables involved too.


The Map you pasted above is non conclusive and is analogous to weather Map

I am asking you of the calculation or the formula. Can you Kindly provide us with that?

You are starting an argument for the sake of an argument,

Regardless of the method you use personally,

You will follow what your local government / Mosque decides.

Otherwise you will be sitting alone in an open ground for eid prayers.

You cant even comprehend a simple picture, but please study the Keplers Law of Planetary Motion.

Here is a starter http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler's_laws_of_planetary_motion

Keplers equations are derived by the research of Arabic Scholor.

Ibn Al-Shatir, the Damascene astronomer (1304-1375 A.D) who, among his works, wrote a major book entitled " Kitab Nihayat al-Sul fi Tashih al-Usul"

This is my attempt to educate you, but i know a person cant really educate a bird brain.

Please come back with a witty comment so i can ignore it.

 

[talkingbird2009]

You are starting an argument for the sake of an argument,

Regardless of the method you use personally,

You will follow what your local government / Mosque decides.

Otherwise you will be sitting alone in an open ground for eid prayers.

You cant even comprehend a simple picture, but please study the Keplers Law of Planetary Motion.

Here is a starter http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler's_laws_of_planetary_motion

Keplers equations are derived by the research of Arabic Scholor.

Ibn Al-Shatir, the Damascene astronomer (1304-1375 A.D) who, among his works, wrote a major book entitled " Kitab Nihayat al-Sul fi Tashih al-Usul"

This is my attempt to educate you, but i know a person cant really educate a bird brain.

Please come back with a witty comment so i can ignore it.

Its not about what mosque or religion I follow. I want to stir a scientific debate and I asked for the formula and methodology used and did not goto the level of which mosque i follow or not follow. Forget that I am a muslim for a moment and discuss the issue of moonsighting with me on scientific grounds.

Thanks,

 

[talkingbird2009]

@talkingbird2009 moon ke behus apni jaga, per kia science nay DNA ke direction main taraqi ki hay? or ki hay to kia aap us ko maantay hain?

Save it for next time and we can discuss that. Today's topic is Moonsighting and the scientific tools used to determine the visibility of moon for instance :

1. Observing moon by naked eye
2. Observing moon by a telescope
3. Forecasting on historical data.
4. Calculations if any?

 

[rfarooqi]

This is just like a weather map and is based on position of the moon . I repeat its not the position but the Visibility of the moon that decided the Lunar Calender.

Do you understand the difference between the Position/Path and the Visibility?

The Visibility does depend on the position of the moon but there are other variables involved too.


The Map you pasted above is non conclusive and is analogous to weather Map

I am asking you of the calculation or the formula. Can you Kindly provide us with that?

The current system of calculation is too flawed. I dislike it but believe a better system dividing the earth into geographical regions.

Lets test you basic knowledge first:

1. What do you know about the orbit of Earth, Sun and Moon with respect each other?
2. What do you understand by "age of moon" and conjuction?
3. What do you understand of atmospheric visibility and how it is derived . Similarly how about Visual Range.
4. What do you know about visual limitation of human eye. What parameters and what limits would define these limits and how they apply to astronomical observations?
5. How can you relate the moon conjunction to Universal time and how that varies across the globe.
6. What is the effect of the tilt of the earth on moon conjunction during various months or the year.
7. What is the role of "International Date line" that runs in the pacific ocean on the moon conjunction on a calender date.
8. If I can see the moon in Lahore which had good visibility but 25 miles across the border, moon is not seed in Sheikhupura due to bad visibility, should there be separate Eids. How about 25 across border in Amritsar / Jhalandar moon is not seen due to bad visibility, Are they justified in not having Eid?
10. Suppose you were living on the north pole. How would you sight the new moon ever in Summer?



So if visibility is bad, but according to Hadith a Caravan comes to Madinah and testifies they saw Moon outside where visibility was good. The Prophet SAW ordered people to break fast and celebrate Eid. So we can establish criterion of moon sighting assuming clear visibility. Remember at that time there was no smog and no light pollution. In the dry desert visibility was of the highest order most of the year.

 

[talkingbird2009]

The current system of calculation is too flawed. I dislike it but believe a better system dividing the earth into geographical regions.

Lets test you basic knowledge first:

1. What do you know about the orbit of Earth, Sun and Moon with respect each other?
2. What do you understand by "age of moon" and conjuction?
3. What do you understand of atmospheric visibility and how it is derived . Similarly how about Visual Range.
4. What do you know about visual limitation of human eye. What parameters and what limits would define these limits and how they apply to astronomical observations?
5. How can you relate the moon conjunction to Universal time and how that varies across the globe.
6. What is the effect of the tilt of the earth on moon conjunction during various months or the year.
7. What is the role of "International Date line" that runs in the pacific ocean on the moon conjunction on a calender date.
8. If I can see the moon in Lahore which had good visibility but 25 miles across the border, moon is not seed in Sheikhupura due to bad visibility, should there be separate Eids. How about 25 across border in Amritsar / Jhalandar moon is not seen due to bad visibility, Are they justified in not having Eid?
10. Suppose you were living on the north pole. How would you sight the new moon ever in Summer?



So if visibility is bad, but according to Hadith a Caravan comes to Madinah and testifies they saw Moon outside where visibility was good. The Prophet SAW ordered people to break fast and celebrate Eid. So we can establish criterion of moon sighting assuming clear visibility. Remember at that time there was no smog and no light pollution. In the dry desert visibility was of the highest order most of the year.

Very detailed and with good scientific knowledge. Salutes to you Sir for raising such intellectual and scientifically valid points. I totally agree with your idea of dividing the globe into different sections for a more accurate model and also catering other variables and not just the path of the moon.

Thank you very much for your much appreciated input!

 

[talkingbird2009]

The current system of calculation is too flawed. I dislike it but believe a better system dividing the earth into geographical regions.

Lets test you basic knowledge first:

1. What do you know about the orbit of Earth, Sun and Moon with respect each other?
2. What do you understand by "age of moon" and conjuction?
3. What do you understand of atmospheric visibility and how it is derived . Similarly how about Visual Range.
4. What do you know about visual limitation of human eye. What parameters and what limits would define these limits and how they apply to astronomical observations?
5. How can you relate the moon conjunction to Universal time and how that varies across the globe.
6. What is the effect of the tilt of the earth on moon conjunction during various months or the year.
7. What is the role of "International Date line" that runs in the pacific ocean on the moon conjunction on a calender date.
8. If I can see the moon in Lahore which had good visibility but 25 miles across the border, moon is not seed in Sheikhupura due to bad visibility, should there be separate Eids. How about 25 across border in Amritsar / Jhalandar moon is not seen due to bad visibility, Are they justified in not having Eid?
10. Suppose you were living on the north pole. How would you sight the new moon ever in Summer?



So if visibility is bad, but according to Hadith a Caravan comes to Madinah and testifies they saw Moon outside where visibility was good. The Prophet SAW ordered people to break fast and celebrate Eid. So we can establish criterion of moon sighting assuming clear visibility. Remember at that time there was no smog and no light pollution. In the dry desert visibility was of the highest order most of the year.

The question you have raised are all called Variables...and I am not an authority over them and have not developed any model at a personal level that encompass all these. However, as a person with scientific background , I have very little faith on the current model. The current model lacks important variables and is based on just the path / coordinates of the moon. Visbility of the moon is not just depenadant on one variable but many others.

An example would be how do you expect me to calculate the value of V in a formula V = ab + Cd ( 9 + DC) + t^2 if you provide or rely on just one variable on the right handside.

 

[Lawangeen]

Where non of your future or past generation can afford the opportunity to study. Educated with Distinction , so do not compare me with yourself or the commons.

yaar app itnai parhai likhai hoo mashallah aur woh bhi distinction kai saath, par kisi kai akal ka aur parhai likhai hona kai andaza app aisai thori laga saktai ho kai app us ko apni field mai sai kuch pooch kar us ko judge karo ?

 

[rfarooqi]

The question you have raised are all called Variables...and I am not an authority over them and have not developed any model at a personal level that encompass all these. However, as a person with scientific background , I have very little faith on the current model. The current model lacks important variables and is based on just the path / coordinates of the moon. Visbility of the moon is not just depenadant on one variable but many others.

An example would be how do you expect me to calculate the value of V in a formula V = ab + Cd ( 9 + DC) + t^2 if you provide or rely on just one variable on the right handside.

On a philosophical note:

1. Did people not make errors due to visibility or other factors in starting a month at the time of prophet? Yes they did as evidenced by several hadith.
2. Does it make a difference if Ramdhan starts one day early or late or if Eid day one day early or late ? No, the sancitity or blessings of Ramadhan does not diminish a single bit. As evidenced by Hadith Bukahri Volume 3, Book 31, Number 136: Narrated Abu Bakra: The Prophet said, "The two months of 'Id i.e. Ramadan and Dhul-Hijja, do not decrease (in superiority) .
I.e. even if error is made their blessings do not decrease.
3. Only concern would be for Lailat -ul-Qadr. But that is only for people who blindly think that it is on the 27th of Ramadhan. Whereas overwhelming evidence from Hadith is that Allah wants us to search for it in the Last 10 days. Maybe in one year in in the life of prophet it was 27th, in one 25 th or 23rd and then the prophet said that Allah took the knowledge of when it was from his heart. Aisha (RA) said prophet did not know which night it was. So in reality it makes no difference if an error is made in starting or ending a month.

Currently there are 6 positions of various groups:

1. Local sighting
2. Mecca sighting
3.Global Sighting
4. Local Calculation
5. Mecca calculation
6. Global calculation

There are sub-classes in each.

Sighting: Naked eye ( no use of telescopes) or assisted sighting (use of semi powerful telescopes)
Calculation: Conjuction criterion, degree criterion, Minutes criterion with statistical visibility factors.

In the short run there cannot be a consensus. I believe in a Regional calculation / visibility factor based system, which self corrects based on actual sightings in clear conditions. But my belief does not matter. What matters is agreeing on one standard however flawed it might be and having the Eid and Ramadhan and Hajj with everyone together at once.

 

[Pakistani1947]

Abu Huraira reported Allah's Messenger (may peace be upon him) as saying: Whenever you sight the newmoon (of the month of Ramadan) observe fast. and when you sight it (the new moon of shawwal) break it, and if the sky is cloudy for you, then observe fast for thirty days. (Sahih Muslim; Book #006, Hadith #2378) source

Kuraib reported that Umm Fadl, daughter of Harith, sent him (Fadl, i. e. her son) to Mu'awiya in Syria. I (Fadl) arrived in Syria, and did the needful for her. It was there in Syria that the month of Ramadan commenced. I saw the new moon (of Ramadan) on Friday. I then came back to Medina at the end of the month. Abdullah b. 'Abbas (Allah be pleased with him) asked me (about the new moon of Ramadan) and said: When did you see it? I said.: We saw it on the night of Friday. He said: (Did) you see it yourself? -I said: Yes, and the people also saw it and they observed fast and Mu'awiya also observed fast, whereupon he said: But we saw it on Saturday night. So we would continue to observe fast till we complete thirty (lasts) or we see it (the new moon of shawwal). I said: Is the sightidg of the moon by Mu'awiya not valid for you? He said: No; this is how the Messenger of Allah (may peace be upon him) has commanded us. Yahya b. Yahya was in doubt (whether the word used in the narration by Kuraib) was Naktafi or Taktafi. (Sahih Muslim; Book #006, Hadith #2391)