Political Parties life span. A theory

[khalilqureshi]

When I was studying Mass Communication, one of my subject was Advertising. I was in habit of studying my subjects out of text books. While studying a research paper on Product adaption, I studied "The product adoption curve". Today just to refresh my knowledge I searched the same topic and read the theory again -

link: https://www.appcues.com/blog/the-product-adoption-curve....

Reading through, I realized that this curve is different for different products. From product's early acceptance to laggards it goes through different stages and these stages are from bottom to top and then to bottom at the end. It is interesting to note that in linked article time period involved from Early adopters to laggards have not been given but definitely different products have different span of life. Also there is no mention that many products get dormant and reemerge after a certain period of time with a new brand name but Product remain the same.

But interestingly I realized that this curve perfectly fit to our Political parties. These parties go through the same curve and I realized that many parties which emerged in Pre Pakistan era continue to be a player for some time, then came to an end and then remerged with a different brand but they are ultimately at the end of that curve and sooner and not later these parties will either complete their life span or will go dormant again for a certain period of time. These are those parties who had their limited market share and people are no more interested in them. Either they will vanish or come back after some time with new label and new tags.

Then we had our two most popular post Partition parties. It looks that these two parties are somewhere at late majority part of curve and in the process of ending their brand name. But it is not easy to determine, how much time it will take. From curve it can be said that it takes same time from the beginning to top and then from top to the end. But it is theory only to understand product life line. Both parts of rise and fall could be different. Still if that theory is accepted as per given curve, Both parties have seen their top slot 10 to 20 years ago. So if their top slot can be determined by looking at their success in elections or in real sense their actual following outside the election process, then their remaining time period can be determined.

The new addition to this product is a party which is on the top of third phase of this curve. This Party has taken around 30 years to come to that position. Now how much time it will take to go the end of curve, it is any ones imagination, depending on longevity and how long this party will remain on top slot.

To understand fully, I will recommend you to read the article if you are interested. Link is given in this writeup.

 

[Dr Adam]

When I was studying Mass Communication, one of my subject was Advertising. I was in habit of studying my subjects out of text books. While studying a research paper on Product adaption, I studied "The product adoption curve". Today just to refresh my knowledge I searched the same topic and read the theory again -

link: https://www.appcues.com/blog/the-product-adoption-curve....

Reading through, I realized that this curve is different for different products. From product's early acceptance to laggards it goes through different stages and these stages are from bottom to top and then to bottom at the end. It is interesting to note that in linked article time period involved from Early adopters to laggards have not been given but definitely different products have different span of life. Also there is no mention that many products get dormant and reemerge after a certain period of time with a new brand name but Product remain the same.

But interestingly I realized that this curve perfectly fit to our Political parties. These parties go through the same curve and I realized that many parties which emerged in Pre Pakistan era continue to be a player for some time, then came to an end and then remerged with a different brand but they are ultimately at the end of that curve and sooner and not later these parties will either complete their life span or will go dormant again for a certain period of time. These are those parties who had their limited market share and people are no more interested in them. Either they will vanish or come back after some time with new label and new tags.

Then we had our two most popular post Partition parties. It looks that these two parties are somewhere at late majority part of curve and in the process of ending their brand name. But it is not easy to determine, how much time it will take. From curve it can be said that it takes same time from the beginning to top and then from top to the end. But it is theory only to understand product life line. Both parts of rise and fall could be different. Still if that theory is accepted as per given curve, Both parties have seen their top slot 10 to 20 years ago. So if their top slot can be determined by looking at their success in elections or in real sense their actual following outside the election process, then their remaining time period can be determined.

The new addition to this product is a party which is on the top of third phase of this curve. This Party has taken around 30 years to come to that position. Now how much time it will take to go the end of curve, it is any ones imagination, depending on longevity and how long this party will remain on top slot.

To understand fully, I will recommend you to read the article if you are interested. Link is given in this writeup.

Very interesting reading Khalil, and thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Not my subject though, still however as a layman, I think one variable which definitely can influence the lifespan of a given party, either way, could be the literacy rate of the society.
I believe if the literacy curve goes higher up in Pakistan it will have big time effect on the outcome pertaining to the lifespan of parties in Pakistan.

Your thoughts???

(P/S: I haven't read the article in the link, will read it later, InshaAllah.)

 

[khalilqureshi]

Very interesting reading Khalil, and thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Not my subject though, still however as a layman, I think one variable which definitely can influence the lifespan of a given party, either way, could be the literacy rate of the society.
I believe if the literacy curve goes higher up in Pakistan it will have big time effect on the outcome pertaining to the lifespan of parties in Pakistan.

Your thoughts???

(P/S: I haven't read the article in the link, will read it later, InshaAllah.)

Thank you Dr. Sahab for your comments. Reason of posting this thread was to brainstorm the viewers. My thread is not comprehensive, nor linked article throw light in a way that it clarify further this theory. Also I don't expect to get a real feedback on this thread. Yes definitely there are or could be many factors that determine the life span of a Party. In developed countries Life span of Political parties is longer then in under developed countries. But interestingly Parties are coming into being in developing countries which are fighting the odds and performing better then their processors. Possibly social media is playing its role greater then Main Stream Media and even conventional educational system. So besides literacy rate - Sociology , Financial background, anthropology and geography also play their role. But to coming to a closer answer research is required by a person who has got expert knowledge on Mass Media including Advertising, Political Science and other related subjects.

 

[Dr Adam]

Thank you Dr. Sahab for your comments. Reason of posting this thread was to brainstorm the viewers. My thread is not comprehensive, nor linked article throw light in a way that it clarify further this theory. Also I don't expect to get a real feedback on this thread. Yes definitely there are or could be many factors that determine the life span of a Party. In developed countries Life span of Political parties is longer then in under developed countries. But interestingly Parties are coming into being in developing countries which are fighting the odds and performing better then their processors. Possibly social media is playing its role greater then Main Stream Media and even conventional educational system. So besides literacy rate - Sociology , Financial background, anthropology and geography also play their role. But to coming to a closer answer research is required by a person who has got expert knowledge on Mass Media including Advertising, Political Science and other related subjects.

Gotcha!
Thank you.