Admittedly I am no economist, so I will rely on your expertise. Put yourself into shoes of the PM, and considering regional geo-political situation and economic malaise that this government had inherited, what you as an economist would have done differently. Offer us some pragmatic, not textbook solutions.
The biggest crime of IK has been lies and false promises. I think by now, most of the people have realised that IK had no planned agenda for addressing the economic or political issues of Pakistan. He was put into power merely against PML N. I want to tell you about the progress of Pakistan under the current govt first.
1) national debt doubled
2) circular debt doubled
3) Tax-GDP ratio declined
3) GDP shrunk
4) Economic growth negative
5) Exports $ terms stagnant
6) Unemployment increased
7) LSM still below 2018 level
8) Poverty increased
Economic recovery? Where? How?
The most important factor for a country to progress and prosper economically is "STABILITY"
The biggest crime of IK is to trigger and perpetuate political instability.
There can never repeat never be a stable economy without political stability.
My friend CPEC, US, China, Saudia .... its a big game being played ever since 2014 when Nawaz initiated CPEC. I cannot go into details on this forum but can tell you its Pro US and Pro-China camps in Pakistan now. People are being used. Knowingly or unknowingly. Personal agendas and foreign agendas turn important people into agents.
Nawaz has been punished for not obeying the Saudis and the US.
Corruption is merely a slogan to “give the dog a bad name and hang him”
Being an economist “My view is that incompetence is the bigger constraint on the development than corruption (of course ideally we want to avoid both).”
Now you must be wondering if I am a supporter of Nawaz. The answer is NO. What I am trying to explain here is that certain factors are important in the modern economic system. You can argue about the system itself but unfortunately, this is how it works in the real world. Unless Muslim scholars come out with a more transparent, ethically progressive and debt-free system for the whole world we are unfortunately compelled to follow this system. Erdogan has done billions of dollars of corruption. Mahathir and his family have benefited too. There are no angels anywhere to be found. Unfortunately its a matter of choosing the lesser evil. That's it!
Now let me tell you what the PTI govt has done.
If you stop eating for a month you will certainly save a handsome amount of money. That’s what this govt has done. Constrict trade, choke imports, choke economy and then say “we’ve saved money
Correction in political economy is always required in the system but you have to see the physical health of the patient in order to prescribe the dose.
A child (weak) is prescribed less quantity of medicine while an adult is prescribed full dose.
PTI has tried to correct “perceived faults” of political economy through a cold “theoretical correction” manner.
This approach has killed growth and rendered thousands of people jobless. Generating growth is as difficult as sustaining growth but killing growth is easy. PTI has done the easiest part with pleasure.
They placed Asad Umar as Finance Minister. The guy has worked in the private sector throughout his life. He doesn't have any experience in MACRO Economics or Political Economy. He is not an Economist but only a corporate CEO. Pakistan is a country and not a corporation to run. IK has done blunders. He should have gone straight to IMF but because of his stupidity and naivety, he wasted a year. These are decisions that have long repercussions.
After miserably failing, unfortunately, PTI supporters now want tuition!
Put yourself into the shoes of the PM, and considering the regional geopolitical and economic situation which was MUCH BETTER. What could you have done to avoid crashing it down? Pls give me a pragmatic response not a textbook answer.
