I don’t agree with Sohail Warraich’s analysis. In my view, Shehbaz Sharif will replace IK as PM and Chaudhry Nisar will replace Buzdar as CM Punjab after next elections. The basis of my analysis is twofold. One, PTI’s below-par performance in Punjab and almost-Zero performance in Karachi ( I am neither discussing here the fallout of 18th amendment nor the financial situation that PTI inherited. I am only talking about what I see on ground and what common man feels). This will cause PTI perform poorly during next elections in Punjab and Karachi. Two, both Shehbaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar are very much acceptable to Military Establishment. IK’s unwillingness to change Buzdar is annoying Military and Shehbaz-Nisar duo is becoming more and more acceptable to them. The other day Daily Dawn wrote about GHQ’s meeting with five federal ministers in which GHQ conveyed the message about PTI’s position in Punjab due to Buzdar.
Dear PTI supporters: You can’t gauge PTI’s performance and popularity in Punjab by living overseas. You have to be physically living in Punjab in order to see the performance and popularity of PTI.
It may be not that easy. Just getting people's support is not enough for a political party to make a government in Pakistan's democracy. :-)
Do you remember how PPP made the government in 2008? They didn't win in Punjab. They had enough seats in Punjab to make the government. PMLN will struggle to get seats from outside punjab. I agree they will be a majority party in Punjab.
The establishment will never allow a party to govern which is openly mouthing against them. Also, PTI has chosen to put only one party's members behind bars. (i.e. PMLN) It means if PMLN comes to power then most of the PTI members will be in Jail in two years. So how can the establishment and PTI stop PMLN getting into power in two years?
The only solution is, if PPP and PTI align then they may get enough votes to make the government. It wouldn't matter if PMLN gets majority votes like the 2018 elections. At most Shahbaz Sharif will become Chief Minister of Punjab again. Imran Khan will continue as the PM, Zardari may again become the president. Don't worry about what Imran Khan says about Zardari today. He had also called Pervaiz Ilahai Punjab kah sab say barha daakoo, then asked him to be the speaker of the Punjab assembly. He also hated MQM before, but now says that MQM politics is similar to PTI.
This is the reason Maryam Nawaz is calling Bilawal selected because it looks obvious that there has been a deal between the establishment and PPP. There is no other possibility to stop PMLN from coming into power in the next election.