If PMLN makes an alliance with PPP, it will certainly be great for PTI as it will vastly erode the support base of PMLN. But why expect the opponents to be idiots who'll do exactly as we want them to do? After PTI called it friendly opposition, PMLN has spent the best part of last two years trying to show that it is the real opponent of PPP. This is how it has managed to reclaim some of supporters that it had lost to PTI. It has no reason to commit a political suicide by siding with PPP again.
Furthermore, if PMLN manages to form provincial government in Punjab but does not have a clear majority in the center, it will prefer that nobody is able to make federal government and the national assembly is dissolved. In that case, the new elections will be held for national assembly only with PMLN ruling in Punjab. PMLN will certainly like that to happen as it is likely to gain more seats in such scenario.
First, it is not two years that PMLN is opposing PPP to some extent.Rather, it is less than 1.5 years.Second, People of Pakistan are not so stupid.We know that even in the last 17 months, when PMLN showed some opposition, everytime both main parties feared threat to their interests, they got united.Let me give you three examples.
1.During the Senate elections of Feb-March 2012, both parties supported each other.This has been pointed out by many political analysts.
2.After they passed 20th amendment, they appointed the four provincial election commissioners though classic MUK-MUKA.It was not revealed at that time but later on when Qadri told the whole nation, this matter became clear.
3.Very recently, Election commission added few clauses in the nomination papers which can cause problems for electables of both parties and both parties took ECP to task in media and Assembly.
Now, I shed some light on how PMLN was able to regain some of its lost ground.
The lost ground was not regained by the opposition of PPP but due to some other factors.These are:
1.The 24/7 propaganda machine of PMLN against PTI.This machine was on rest before Oct 30, 2011.This machine, aided by the weak media performance of PTI, helped PMLN tremendously.
2.The worst governance of PPP in the center, Sindh and Balochistan which helped PMLN's slightly better govt of Punjab look like a real good one.This, coupled with the ever present media projection of PMLN helped it a lot.
3.PMLN's opening of all doors and breaking of all self-imposed principles made the way for all the men of Musharraf to enter into PMLN.Moreover, Nawaz Sharif toured all provinces and held Jalsas in all provinces on war-footings.
4.Shehbaz Sharif increased his Nontakies many fold.During these last 17 months, he did three projects i-e Rapid Bus, Laptops and Solar Lamps.More importantly, the thirty-year old media might of PMLN sold these things at the rapid pace.Just look how quickly they were able to sign an agreement with Transparency International Pakistan (TIP) and get certificates from them for their three projects.Though, later on, TIP declined that they issued any certificate but till that time "Noon Leage apna souda sell kar chuki thi".
5.PTI was totally consumed in its intra-party elections and didn't hold any Jalsa between May 27,2012 and March 10, 2013.PTI gained momentum through Jalsas and it could have been maintained only through Jalsas as it was not in the govt to show off anything to the public.
So, is there anything which could suggest that PMLN opposed PPP vehemently? Please don't quote this Super-drama of caretaker prime minister.It has been already decided but they are not making it public.
Further, how is it possible that PMLN will be able to form govt in Punjab but will not able to form govt in the Center? During the last 2 years, PMLN kept its Punjab govt with the help of 48 LOTAS of Q-league.In the next elections, Q-league will be almost wiped out.In all possible scenarios, if PMLN is able to form govt in Punjab at its own, it will also form govt in center with the help of two or three smaller allies (e.g JUI-F, BNP,PML-F, FATA etc).On the other hand, if PMLN, PPP and PTI get seats in proximity at NA level, PMLN and PTI will get approx same number of seats in Punjab assembly, which will make it impossible for PMLN to form govt at its own in Punjab Province.
Think about my analysis and if any of you people still doubt, I can present you with some numbers to justify my case that if there is hung-parliament in the center, PMLN will not be able to form govt in Punjab without the help of either PPP or PTI.This is because we know that there are no smaller parties (like JUI-F, ANP, BNP, nationalists, PML-F) in Punjab that exist at Centeral level.
Finally, it is not the headache of PTI to think how PMLN will form govt in the center.If they join PPP or not, its their own choice.