Dr.Khan: I agree to your observations.I also doubt the credibility of this survey as Geo News was also partner to Gallup Pakistan and PILDAT in that survey.We all know about the extremely good relations between Mir.Shakeel Ur Rehman (the owner of Jang Group) and Nawaz Sharif as both have Kashmiri origion.So, in my opinion, the difference between PTI and PMLN in terms of survey point should not be as large as has been depicted by this survey.The perception is being created for the swing voters that, vote to PMLN, otherwise your vote will be wasted.
Having said that I honestly believe that PMLN is ahead of PTI at the moment.This is due to unimpressive performance of PTI speakers on media in the last year (this year our spokespersons have improved a lot),the PTI's involvement in party elections over the last 10 months, the 24/7 propaganda of Noon League in Punjab, the machiavalian schemes of PMLN like Laptops, Rapid Bus etc.
Having accepted that PMLN is at the moment more popular than PTI (not more than a margin of 10% in my view), PTI needs to do its election campaign at war-footings.It has to do election campaign at such a large scale that has not been done before in our history.Imran Khan will have to do jalsa in every district of Punjab and it is very much possible as there are total of 36 districts in Punjab.In KPK, IK can do one Jalsa in each division.Shah Mehmood and Javed Hashmi will have to campaign exhaustively in South Punjab.The good news for PTI is that, after March 16, PMLN will be doing its election campaign without govt resources.So, PMLN will not be able to pull crowds with the help of Parwaris, school teachers and students etc.Whatever number PMLN will pull in its Jalsas will be the true hardcore supporters of PMLN.
In a nutshell, only a popular wave will decide the outcome of the next elections.The surveys are not going to decide, even if they are in favor of PTI.