In my native region of Mardan the situation is quite different than the one portrayed in the different analysis. PTI has chances on NA-9 and NA-11 but not a sure shot win with NA-10 also being not entirely out of the question and not confirmed either.
ANP is quite strong in NA-9, it will get stronger still due to the contesting of former CM Haider Khan Hoti. As an example, in the 2012 by-elections, ANP candidate Himayatullah Mayar won this seat and gained 30770 votes while candidate of JUI-F Maulana Shujaul Mulak who was supported by PTI, PML-N and other parties gained only 24621. The local population is however well aware and educated in this region so a PTI victory should not entirely be written off.
While NA-9 contains a healthy portion of the city populace. NA-10 is more village centric. Main areas include Babozai, Shamozai, Kharki and then upto Thakhat Bai. Religious vote is quite rampant in this constituency with a considerable banking of landlords as well. PTI's candidate Barrister Ali Muhammad Khan is a very good choice on a personal level as he is very well educated and was born in a local village named Hathiyan. However he has to do a lot of work to deter other candidates from winning because he isn't widely known despite the fact that a good number of silent voters are pro-PTI in the area.
Like NA-10, NA-11 also has a lot of rural area involved. So personalities and local allegiances matter. However vote bank for both conservative and secular parties exist here as evident from Khanzada Khan retaining this seat for PPP in the by elections after a neck-in-neck fight with MMA's Maulana Taj-ul-Amin. In the 2008 general elections, PPP's Abdul Akbar had won by a huge margin. This time around however things are different, PTI's candidate Mujahid Khan is of a clean repute and has support of influential local leaders like Nigar Khan. A good majority has gone pro-PTI in the region and a lot of PPP/ANP voters will break away and go for PTI instead. However, because of this breakaway religious parties might benefit in the area if they chose to field a single candidate.
So in short, there is no confirmed seat of PTI here, yet.
ANP is quite strong in NA-9, it will get stronger still due to the contesting of former CM Haider Khan Hoti. As an example, in the 2012 by-elections, ANP candidate Himayatullah Mayar won this seat and gained 30770 votes while candidate of JUI-F Maulana Shujaul Mulak who was supported by PTI, PML-N and other parties gained only 24621. The local population is however well aware and educated in this region so a PTI victory should not entirely be written off.
While NA-9 contains a healthy portion of the city populace. NA-10 is more village centric. Main areas include Babozai, Shamozai, Kharki and then upto Thakhat Bai. Religious vote is quite rampant in this constituency with a considerable banking of landlords as well. PTI's candidate Barrister Ali Muhammad Khan is a very good choice on a personal level as he is very well educated and was born in a local village named Hathiyan. However he has to do a lot of work to deter other candidates from winning because he isn't widely known despite the fact that a good number of silent voters are pro-PTI in the area.
Like NA-10, NA-11 also has a lot of rural area involved. So personalities and local allegiances matter. However vote bank for both conservative and secular parties exist here as evident from Khanzada Khan retaining this seat for PPP in the by elections after a neck-in-neck fight with MMA's Maulana Taj-ul-Amin. In the 2008 general elections, PPP's Abdul Akbar had won by a huge margin. This time around however things are different, PTI's candidate Mujahid Khan is of a clean repute and has support of influential local leaders like Nigar Khan. A good majority has gone pro-PTI in the region and a lot of PPP/ANP voters will break away and go for PTI instead. However, because of this breakaway religious parties might benefit in the area if they chose to field a single candidate.
So in short, there is no confirmed seat of PTI here, yet.
