Pakistan's Economic problems and solutions
GazooMartian and others,
Let me explain Pakistans financial situation in plain English, so everyone understands perfectly well what is happening ever since PPP took office and even before they coming to the office in the last part of Musharafs era.
As we know, Mr. Sheikh has been re-appointed as Finance Minister of Pakistan by PPP, he served in same capacity in Musharaf era.
Mr. Sheikh is an agent. Pakistanis should be up in arms and asking for his immediate sacking if they understood what he is doing to Pakistan. He is the biggest threat to Pakistans existence, even higher than Zardari, Gilani, Haqqani and Rehman Malik.
What Sheikh has done in the past and what is he doing now, is same what has been done to Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal etc.
And to some degree to the UK and USA. But these two countries have more clout in financial world, therefore, on the surface they are doing well, in reality they have similar problems, but managing them more effectively.
Mr. Sheikh has two very obvious and very familiar weapons, which he is using to destroy Pakistans economy.
1) Borrowing to pay the existing debt. As I explained in the case of Ireland, there are two reasons why a country has to borrow more.
A) To pay for its current account and budgetary deficits. If you have a budget deficit then you cannot even fulfil your current years requirements from your resources or revenues. How can you pay your existing debt?
B) The borrowing, have two main purposes in deficit ridden economy, to finance the debt repayments and also current budget deficit. In turn the Debt repayments also have two aspects. Firstly the interest on the existing debt, and also repayment of the principle amounts for maturing debts.
For Pakistans foreign debts, for the liabilities maturing, repayment of the Principle amount, and payment of interest on the existing debt, Mr. Sheikh relying on foreign loans, aid and trenches from IMF. Foreign debts cannot be paid in Rupees (unless there is a specific agreement with the lenders) therefore, they have to be treated separately; you need dollars (or other foreign currencies, if specified) to fulfil your responsibilities and obligations.
This is the principle reason they need the aid and also packages from IMF. Without these two helping, it would be impossible for Pakistan to fulfil its obligations. Unless they change their course and take corrective measures in Pakistani economy.
Pakistan having deficit in its foreign trade does not help, as I explained in one of my post Pakistans imports (most of which are on luxury items like bullet proofs cars for the safety of our corrupt leaders, petroleum products and machinery) were $32.71bn and exports were $20.29bn for 2010 leaving a trade deficit of $12.42bn. Most of the trade deficit is plugged in by remittances of overseas Pakistanis, which were over $10bn in 2010. For rest Pakistan needs help.
We see, that the current account deficit after taking in to account remittance is not great, therefore, it is safe to conclude that the foreign help either through aid, IMF trenches and acquisition of new foreign debts are not solely used for plugging the current trade deficit. But these sources are also used to plug the budget deficit and payment of interest on foreign debts. Otherwise there are no other plausible explanations of more than doubling of the Pakistans foreign debt.
But this is only one side; the second problem is the budget deficit.
2- To plug-in the budget deficit, Sheikh is using two tools, apart from the foreign aid and IMF.
1- Borrowing from Pakistani banks.
2- Printing more money.
First is self-explanatory, borrowing domestically has doubled the internal debt in last 3 years as well.
Debt is bad, no doubt, but the second one is even more dangerous for general public, quantum easing brings in inflation. Thats why we see rocketing of consumer prices in Pakistan. Resulting in increase in poverty in Pakistan and more and more people feeling the pinch economically.
It also brings another malaise it devalues the Pakistani Rupees further. Unfortunately, devaluing of the currency is used as a major tool of Monetary and Fiscal policies in Pakistan for years.
Different parties or successive governments did not formulate proper planning and policies; neither they have taken economical responsibilities seriously, due to either lack of expertise (like in case of PPP who have nobody in their party capable enough to tackle economy. They end up borrowing one and then another person in the end settling on Mr. Sheikh, they lack vision. Successive governments end up using devaluation of Rupees as a tool to be competitive in international markets.
There are two ways you can compete in international markets, first to control the costs and produce product at competitive prices for the international markets or you devalue your currency so your product are cheaper in terms of dollars in international markets.
Pakistanis unable to control the inflation for the reasons I explained above, hyperinflation for years resulted increase in costs of domestic production, as the cost of electricity, gas, transportation and labour increased. While the other option was too difficult to achieve, Pakistani economic gurus over the years found easy fudge to keep devaluing Rupees further and further to stay competitive in the international markets for their exports.
It is obvious PPP is a party of idiots and illiterates; it does not have capable people to take care of the Economy. Sheikh and his Masters are too happy for him to got the job, he is making their task easier to destroy Pakistan and keep it under their clutches through IMF and through direct aid. Giving them the chance to interfere in Pakistan internal affairs and dictate Pakistan.
Pakistan is fast moving towards the situation faced by Greek, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and numerous other countries.
We can stop it, it is not difficult, Pakistanis are amongst the most brilliant in the World. But you have to employ honest and patriotic people to stir Pakistan economic policies.
I can give some broad solutions, which have to be implemented one day or another, sooner or later.
1- Control imports: get rid of excessive and unnecessary luxury items in the import. Our politicians should be pushed to have normal cars, rather than expensive bullet proof cars. Or they can take the option of not having the job. The life of ordinary citizens and the Ministers have equal value. Only in Pakistan they would be given expensive cars to save themselves while people dying everyday. It may push them to improve security situation in Pakistan when their own lives at risk. Cut back unnecessary and unproductive foreign trips by PM, President and Ministers to save the foreign exchange.
2- With increase in exports and substantial increase in remittances ($2bn increase this year) try to achieve at least $3bn surplus in foreign trade. Use this surplus to pay interest on debts and also gradually pay off debts, starting with the debts acquired on very high interest rates by Musharaf and some by PPP.
3- Control your budget deficit, by cutting excessive costs in Government i.e. ludicrous spending on President, Prime Minister Houses, Parliament, lodges, on foreign tours etc.
4- Sort out the bleeding wounds like steel mill, PIA, Railways etc.
5- Sort out the corruption, first in implementation of taxes and second in their collection. This two should be the first priority together with loss making institutions.
6- Increase direct taxes rather than implementing indirect taxes, which effect poor more. While rich billionaires who are involved dealing in stock, currencies, properties etc are not paying any taxes. And then there are the big land owners, hurdle in agricultural reforms and taxation.
Pakistan has lots of potential and can come out of the trouble very quickly and easily but the government has to show the intentions and interests, which unfortunately are missing.
PPP is only concern to complete their term, even 4 years and then call the General Election. PPP is complete deprived of people who have something in between their ears. No wonder they have an idiot in Punjab assembly as opposition leader who cannot pronounce Party properly, he uses Palty.
We know what are the main motives and aims of the leadership of PPP, loot, loot and more loot.
May Allah SWT bless Pakistan and give us strength to kick out these thieves and crooks from Pakistani politics, Amen.