Dr samar Mubarak is Dishonest
False hopes
Source
Hope 1: Thar coal is about to be converted into product gas sufficient to meet our energy needs for the following 100 years.
Fact 1: Underground coal gasification (UCG) is strictly experimental in nature and not a single commercial project exists on the face of the planet that relies exclusively on underground coal gasification.
Hope 2: Thar coal reserves can produce enough gas to end gas load-shedding.
Fact 2: Pakistan’s UCG project has somehow managed to extract funds both from the federal government and the Punjab government but in order to attract funding from financial institutions the project would have to go through at least three assessments: Technical Viability Assessment, Environmental & Social Impact Assessment and, finally, Commercial Viability Assessment. The fact remains that Pakistan’s UCG team has so far avoided both an independent technical review and an independent financial audit.
Hope 3: Thar coal reserves can produce enough electricity to end power load-shedding.
Fact 3: On July 16, 2009, the Planning Commission held an important meeting. That day the UCG team claimed that 10MW of power will be generated by end-2009. That deadline was later moved to end-June 2010. Later on, the deadline was moved to end-2011 for generating 100MW. For the record, the technology for underground coal gasification exists but its commercial viability is the biggest of all question marks. (I can tell you that I have the technology to convert a carat of coal into a carat of flawless diamond but if the cost of conversion is more than what a carat of diamond is available in the open market the technology that I have isn’t commercially viable.)
Pakistan’s UCG project must immediately be subjected to an independent technical review and an independent financial audit without which billions of taxpayers’ rupees are being sent nowhere but down the coal mines. Without a Bankable Feasibility Study there’s no money and without money there can be no end to load-shedding.
There indeed is a difference between hope and positive thinking. Hopefully there will be a day when UCG is commercially viable. But, false hopes like job creations; Are there to keep you down; Straws in the wind for working man; Create not but misery. And, when you feel down, try positive thinking; Don’t wear a frown, try positive thinking; Laugh at your troubles instead; Trust what tomorrow may bring.
For the record, Japan’s proven reserves of lignite coal are next to zero and yet Japan’s GDP stands at a tall $4.459 trillion. To be certain, it’s not about being able to convert coal into gas. The real name of the game is developing Pakistan’s human capital-education and health.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email:
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