27 December 2007, Establishment used their proxy to kill populist leader Benazir Bhutto. The army was favouring Nawaz Sharif but people were against PML(N). It was a tough call, but the establishment decided to assassinate Benazir. They knew there will be consequences but they were ready to face them. Because at no cost they were ready to let Benazir Bhutto govern Pakistan at the time of the "War on Terror" because commercial interests of the military were at stake under her rule. The assassination plan was leaked but Benazir decided to face the challenge. H. Clinton and the International Intelligence agencies informed Benazir not to challenge the establishment but she went on the suicide mission. After the assassination, the Military struck a deal with Mr. Zardari, rigged the elections and let him rule Pakistan in exchange for calming down the situation. People forgot Benazir’s death. All were having a free hand to do corruption including Zardari, Sharifs and Gen. Kiyani.
Fast forward to today, Imran Khan is facing the same challenge. Although not that powerful but largely in control Army doesn’t want Khan at all. The decision has been made in Rawalpindi that he will not rule Pakistan again. He is on a suicide mission, but at the same time, Khan is not going rogue and still requesting Gen. Bajwa and his team to allow him to come back to power. Khan played smartly, he recorded a video message against the establishment with evidence. His power show in Islamabad was to show that unlike Benazir he has support everywhere and there is no one with whom the military can strike a deal after his death. Power circles are confused about what to do with him?
A million-dollar question, Why military needs the PDM-style government?
1. The Prime Minister of Pakistan cannot or should not nominate a COAS without military approval. Nawaz did many times and every time he was thrown out of power. COAS Bajwa doesn’t want to leave, the last option, Bajwa should be allowed to nominate the next COAS. PDM has already agreed with this. Bajwa do not trust Imran Khan for the same.
2. India is planning to launch a military strike in Azad Kashmir and has plans to take over some land (even if it is a few meters). This is very important for Modi and BJP as they have recently lost an area size of Islamabad to China. India knows that Pakistan’s military is weak and is not in a position to attack (they will remain defensive)
Army wants a pro-India and a pro-West Govt. It is for this reason that PML is given the government and Bilawal Bhutto is given the foreign ministry. As the military is signalling to India that we do not want any conflict
Unfortunately, the Pakistan military is heavily invested in commercial ventures. Even a small border conflict is major for them. The army is poorly equipped to fight back. 40% of Pakistan's budget is spent on the military but a major portion of this goes to the non-combat area. Bilawal Bhutto on the orders of COAS is on an international mission to gather support for Pakistan. And Nawaz is in the UK working with Indian business tycoons to lobby the PM of India not to initiate this small-scale war. If successful, all cases against Nawaz will be dropped against him.
Khan Independent Pakistan is not commercially viable for the Military as a small attack can derail their decades-long investment in ventures throughout Pakistan. Nor Khan holds any diplomatic power to stop India.
3. The US is interested in keeping China out and that is why they want an airbase in Pakistan. Imran Khan "absolutely not" is too much to digest for the establishment. The military is preparing the Shamsi airbase that will be given to them again. Pakistan's military wants them to remain engaged in Afghanistan. Imran Khan is a hurdle and must be kept aside.
Yesterday, Imran Khan didn’t get any assurance of elections. He just saved his life, he got an International call to leave this sit-in and initiate dialogue with power circles otherwise his end will be like Benazir Bhutto. Khan is smart and will prepare a strategy to come back to power. He knows he cannot afford to go rogue.
Fast forward to today, Imran Khan is facing the same challenge. Although not that powerful but largely in control Army doesn’t want Khan at all. The decision has been made in Rawalpindi that he will not rule Pakistan again. He is on a suicide mission, but at the same time, Khan is not going rogue and still requesting Gen. Bajwa and his team to allow him to come back to power. Khan played smartly, he recorded a video message against the establishment with evidence. His power show in Islamabad was to show that unlike Benazir he has support everywhere and there is no one with whom the military can strike a deal after his death. Power circles are confused about what to do with him?
A million-dollar question, Why military needs the PDM-style government?
1. The Prime Minister of Pakistan cannot or should not nominate a COAS without military approval. Nawaz did many times and every time he was thrown out of power. COAS Bajwa doesn’t want to leave, the last option, Bajwa should be allowed to nominate the next COAS. PDM has already agreed with this. Bajwa do not trust Imran Khan for the same.
2. India is planning to launch a military strike in Azad Kashmir and has plans to take over some land (even if it is a few meters). This is very important for Modi and BJP as they have recently lost an area size of Islamabad to China. India knows that Pakistan’s military is weak and is not in a position to attack (they will remain defensive)
Army wants a pro-India and a pro-West Govt. It is for this reason that PML is given the government and Bilawal Bhutto is given the foreign ministry. As the military is signalling to India that we do not want any conflict
Unfortunately, the Pakistan military is heavily invested in commercial ventures. Even a small border conflict is major for them. The army is poorly equipped to fight back. 40% of Pakistan's budget is spent on the military but a major portion of this goes to the non-combat area. Bilawal Bhutto on the orders of COAS is on an international mission to gather support for Pakistan. And Nawaz is in the UK working with Indian business tycoons to lobby the PM of India not to initiate this small-scale war. If successful, all cases against Nawaz will be dropped against him.
Khan Independent Pakistan is not commercially viable for the Military as a small attack can derail their decades-long investment in ventures throughout Pakistan. Nor Khan holds any diplomatic power to stop India.
3. The US is interested in keeping China out and that is why they want an airbase in Pakistan. Imran Khan "absolutely not" is too much to digest for the establishment. The military is preparing the Shamsi airbase that will be given to them again. Pakistan's military wants them to remain engaged in Afghanistan. Imran Khan is a hurdle and must be kept aside.
Yesterday, Imran Khan didn’t get any assurance of elections. He just saved his life, he got an International call to leave this sit-in and initiate dialogue with power circles otherwise his end will be like Benazir Bhutto. Khan is smart and will prepare a strategy to come back to power. He knows he cannot afford to go rogue.
