Why PTI failed to check inflation?

Doom1111

Minister (2k+ posts)
Yes, it's way too high. Should have kept at inflation target of 7 percent
Import of goods in Nov is 7.5 billion dollar and Youthia is enjoying 2.9 billion export. This is called Munafiq when you say that import are increased due to international ,however, export are increased due to PTi competence. They are kids and insecure breeds.
 

Resilient

Minister (2k+ posts)
Reason is simple. Pmln govt did not increase support prices of wheat and sugar cane for 5 years. They also did not increase prices of gas and electricity despite adding some of the most expensive power plants in the world.

When PTI came into power, they had to adjust prices for PMLN as well as for their own tenure ($ devaluation). The mistake PTI made was waste 2018. They should have increase the prices of electricity and gas straight away even before going to IMF.
They did the same. Remember Asad Umar was saying that we depreciated PKR before going to IMF so IMF could not demand depreciation of PKR.
 

Munawarkhan

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Thanks for raising this Arif.

it is true that the current govt faced crisis early than in the form of regional conflicts & pandemic, but still this situation could've been handled better.

In my opinion, they faced additional resistance from bureaucracy & didn't carry the authority over them. Mafias in industries is not an excuse, how they couldn't predict this and they were late in going hard on them. How difficult it was to ensure petroleum availability when the prices went down? I feel that there are few reasons for it, eg.:

  1. Decisions making process is a disaster, they are good in initiatives but bad in planning it out in detail. Like they had a 100 days agenda, ok some tasks were not completed in their 100 day report, but is it completed now? we don't know. citizen portal is an excellent immediate relief solution, but has it translated to institutional reforms, we don't know. This is the governance solution that they have, now they only need to manage it to their advantage.
  2. Management first reform later, unless you manage better than the ppl before, you cannot execute reforms. this cannot be an excuse that we are rebuilding it first, then you will see results. Ofcourse, that's the easier option, but the public is harmed due to delays. Why couldn't they go hard after the petrol associations on day1 when the prices went down & they stopped giving petrol? or raid Sugar traders in Jan/Feb when the sugar shortage first started? These type of decision making has to be done faster, else it becomes a chain disaster.
  3. They tackled the biggest issues first, things that were hurting the govt in terms of deficit, like IPP contract negotiations, Steel Mill issue etc. which again couldn't be an excuse that other things couldn't be managed simultaneously. These mafias go to courts, govt approved 120 new NAB courts last year, what happened, we don't know.
What has all of this to do with inflation?
We have imported inflation & we have internal disasters, both of them combined makes the life of public miserable. Compounded with dollar decline the speed of growth is much slower than inflation. Faster decision making in the beginning, better accountability would have given relief to the public from this mafia.


Data shows PTI govt managed inflation fairly poor. State bank's inflation targeting is around 7 percent, yet the actual inflation rate has been much higher. November 2021 inflation numbers are now out and they show double digit growth in inflation YoY. Poor Pakistanis are being crushed under these unusual circumstances. It's govt and SBP's job to work together to ensure that inflation rate doesn't exceed targeted rate of 7 percent. Pmln govt can be criticized for bankrupting Pakistan in 2018, but it outperformed inflation target set by SBP through artificial means. PTI govt could at least meet that 7 percent inflation target without artificial means. View attachment 3899View attachment 3900
Siberite Rajarawal111 Resilient Bubber Shair Landmark Awan S ansar_raja786 Tit4Tat Rajarawal111 Shazi ji
مہنگائی کا قصور وار صرف عمران خان نہیں ہے عوام بھی ہیں

Inflation is not just in Pakistan but it is breaking records all over the world.

Inflation is related to Containers costing $14,000 to $22,000 per container. previously $400/container

Oil prices are high and cost of oil shipment is high.
because of Covid 19 world production slowdown.
Pakistan Industrial Mafia price manipulation.

Previous govt did not have to deal with these factors.

sorry, we do not have any other option... hope and pray that PTI gets it sorted...

or you have nani chorni or billo khusri in mind?? ?

جی جی ھر سال ایک ادھ باپ بچوں کو کپڑے نہ بنا کر دے سکنے پر پھرتی سے اپنے آپ کو آک لگا لیتے ہیں
 

Munawarkhan

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Reason is simple. Pmln govt did not increase support prices of wheat and sugar cane for 5 years. They also did not increase prices of gas and electricity despite adding some of the most expensive power plants in the world.

When PTI came into power, they had to adjust prices for PMLN as well as for their own tenure ($ devaluation). The mistake PTI made was waste 2018. They should have increase the prices of electricity and gas straight away even before going to IMF.

Agreed with all that you say, but that should effect only the first 1-2 years. Then it should come down, or stay where it was instead of increasing
 

arifkarim

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
They did the same. Remember Asad Umar was saying that we depreciated PKR before going to IMF so IMF could not demand depreciation of PKR.
PTI inflation management is a disaster.
 

Shazi ji

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
آپ چاہتے ہیں کہ عیدپر بھی لوگ نئے کپڑے نہ لیں اور گھر میں میٹھا نہ بنائیں ؟؟
Data shows PTI govt managed inflation fairly poor. State bank's inflation targeting is around 7 percent, yet the actual inflation rate has been much higher. November 2021 inflation numbers are now out and they show double digit growth in inflation YoY. Poor Pakistanis are being crushed under these unusual circumstances. It's govt and SBP's job to work together to ensure that inflation rate doesn't exceed targeted rate of 7 percent. Pmln govt can be criticized for bankrupting Pakistan in 2018, but it outperformed inflation target set by SBP through artificial means. PTI govt could at least meet that 7 percent inflation target without artificial means. View attachment 3899View attachment 3900
Siberite Rajarawal111 Resilient Bubber Shair Landmark Awan S ansar_raja786 Tit4Tat Rajarawal111 Shazi ji

مہنگائی کا قصور وار صرف عمران خان نہیں ہے عوام بھی ہیں

Inflation is not just in Pakistan but it is breaking records all over the world.

Max in Asia countries the Inflation rate is 6% and now Pakiatan has 11.5%. Since PTI came 9% is the average inflation since 3.5 years of PTI.
arifkarim
Arif bhai these 2 GRAPHS you attached are in ur posts every 3 days ,,,, dear figures hv changed but your graph never changes which you are using since 1931 ???
 

arifkarim

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
غلطی عوام کی ہی ہے جو پی ٹی آئی کے جھانسے میں آگئی
اس مفرور کے جھانسے میں بار بار آنے والی بھی وہی قوم ہے پٹواری
23E5CD57-C69C-4A02-8A3A-6332F4C0628B.jpeg
 

arafay

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Who is accountable for delaying IMF program in April 2021?

off course current govt is responsible. However, the reason is given in earlier post.

is govt ko pahle pmln ke hissay ki prices increase karni thi jisme 2 saal lag gaye. phr apne hissay ki bho prices increase karni pari tu corona aya hua tha. ab 2021/22 me ye apne hissay ki prices increase kare ge.

Future me bhi electricity/gas prices increase karte rehna hongi because naye anaye wala saray plants buht expensive hain.
 

Doom1111

Minister (2k+ posts)
off course current govt is responsible. However, the reason is given in earlier post.

is govt ko pahle pmln ke hissay ki prices increase karni thi jisme 2 saal lag gaye. phr apne hissay ki bho prices increase karni pari tu corona aya hua tha. ab 2021/22 me ye apne hissay ki prices increase kare ge.

Future me bhi electricity/gas prices increase karte rehna hongi because naye anaye wala saray plants buht expensive hain.
Who is answerable to this?


https://twitter.com/x/status/1465984996506808323
 

arafay

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Agreed with all that you say, but that should effect only the first 1-2 years. Then it should come down, or stay where it was instead of increasing

As new plants come online the capcity charges will continue increasing so the unit cost of electricity will also increase. Electricity prices will have to be increased until all the capacity payment charges of future plants are absorbed.

Similarly as local gas reserves deplete (almost 10% per year) more and more LNG will be imported which costs many times more than the local gas. As a result, gas prices will also have to be increase almost every year!!
 

arafay

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Who is answerable to this?


https://twitter.com/x/status/1465984996506808323

8 billion imports per month is too much. Clearly 100-200 cars does NOT get you to 8 billion imports. I don't know the exact breakdown but there is something odd about these figures.

Dollar has gone from 153 to 175 in last 6 months and yet imports have increased from $4 to $8 billion. Do you believe it can happen?

I don't know the exact answer why the imports increased so much but I think some of this import is ending up in Afghanistan.

US withdrew from Kabul on 30th August after which restrictions were placed on Taliban govt in Afghanistan.

Exchange rate on 1st Sept was 165 and avg oil price was $70.75/bbl. CAD in August was $1.5 billion.
Exchange rate on 1s Dec is 175 and avg oil price was $81/bbl. CAD in November went up to $2 billion.

Either people in Pakistan are getting rich and buying more petrol despite ever increasing oil price OR goods are being smuggled to Afghanistan. I think it is the latter and it seems to be govt policy to support taliban govt in afghanistan
 

Doom1111

Minister (2k+ posts)
8 billion imports per month is too much. Clearly 100-200 cars does NOT get you to 8 billion imports. I don't know the exact breakdown but there is something odd about these figures.

Dollar has gone from 153 to 175 in last 6 months and yet imports have increased from $4 to $8 billion. Do you believe it can happen?

I don't know the exact answer why the imports increased so much but I think some of this import is ending up in Afghanistan.

US withdrew from Kabul on 30th August after which restrictions were placed on Taliban govt in Afghanistan.

Exchange rate on 1st Sept was 165 and avg oil price was $70.75/bbl. CAD in August was $1.5 billion.
Exchange rate on 1s Dec is 175 and avg oil price was $81/bbl. CAD in November went up to $2 billion.

Either people in Pakistan are getting rich and buying more petrol despite ever increasing oil price OR goods are being smuggled to Afghanistan. I think it is the latter and it seems to be govt policy to support taliban govt in afghanistan
Razzak Dawood said it is due to cars, soya been, raw materail, cars and housing items. He said in Dec he says import of goods will be above 8.5 billion dollar and they cannot reduce it because this was all pre booked.