I am not a political or defense analyst, but after reading a lot of newspapers and views of the intellectuals, politicians, defense, and commercial analysts.
One out-of-the-box thought that strikes my mind is that the regime change is not only to get rid of imrankhan / @ptiofficial Government. But this move indicates the start of a very serious and dangerous series of incidents.
The USA and the western world try to surround China from all sides to start a big war. Like on the east side, South Korea, in South Taiwan and Philippine, in west India and the northwest corner Pakistan, the north side is covered by Russia so can’t considered here.
There is lot of statement on this issue such as
President Joe said in the Tokyo on 23rd May 2022
President says US’s responsibility to protect island is ‘even stronger’ after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nd-taiwan-if-attacked-by-china-says-joe-biden
Internet and media are filled with articles and reports that “What China should learn from the recent invasion of Russia in Ukraine” or What is the lesson learned for China from the Ukraine war. Such as below:
The optimistic answer is that the lessons he is learning make an invasion of Taiwan less likely. First, Xi may be wondering how well his untested military would perform if told to invade. Surely the abysmal performance of Russian troops must make Xi, and every other high official in China, wonder what happens if stiff resistance is met. Like the Russian army, but unlike the U.S. military and our allies who fought in Iraq or Afghanistan, the People's Liberation Army or PLA is simply untried. And Xi must fear that a military defeat could threaten his own hold on power.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/ukraine-war-china-and-taiwan
and the latest article in “the Japan times” showing the weaknesses of the People Liberation Army of China
The Chinese armed forces share many of the same weaknesses as the Russian military
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2022/06/13/%opinion_category%/china-russia-military-weaknesses/
Now the one step forward is that on May 24, 2022, NY times reported that
“WASHINGTON — The Biden administration has accelerated its efforts to reshape Taiwan’s defense systems as it projects a more robust American military presence in the region to try to deter a potential attack by the Chinese military, current and former U.S. officials say.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/us/politics/china-taiwan-military.html
With all these above readings, I feel the regime change is the preparation of the war against China same as on 12th October 1999 the Military Coup against @pmln_org under the leadership of Gen. Pervez Musharraf exactly 2years before the attack of 9/11 on September 11, 2001, which become the trigger point for the longest and most expensive war of the current history of human beings called Afghan War (2001 ~ 2021). The war exactly took 19 years, 10 months, 3 weeks, and 2 days starting on 7 October 2001 (exactly 2 years from the Coup of Gen. Pervez Musharraf and till 30 August 2021.
The above process in the same sequence was played in the 1977 Military Coup under the leadership of Gen. Zia ul-Haq on July 5, 1977, and the Soviets invade Afghanistan on 24 December 1979 which prolong the exile of the Soviet last soldier on 15 February 1989.
If carefully calculate the difference in duration between both Coups and the start of the Wars is almost two years in both cases.
Here, again the statement from the defense minister of China on Jun 12, 2022 “China Won’t Hesitate to Fight for Taiwan”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/12/world/asia/china-taiwan-us.html
Summarizing the above both historical incidents and the statements, indicating clearly increase in the probability of War and the current regime may continue or prolong for a minimum decay or more.
One out-of-the-box thought that strikes my mind is that the regime change is not only to get rid of imrankhan / @ptiofficial Government. But this move indicates the start of a very serious and dangerous series of incidents.
The USA and the western world try to surround China from all sides to start a big war. Like on the east side, South Korea, in South Taiwan and Philippine, in west India and the northwest corner Pakistan, the north side is covered by Russia so can’t considered here.
There is lot of statement on this issue such as
President Joe said in the Tokyo on 23rd May 2022
President says US’s responsibility to protect island is ‘even stronger’ after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nd-taiwan-if-attacked-by-china-says-joe-biden
Internet and media are filled with articles and reports that “What China should learn from the recent invasion of Russia in Ukraine” or What is the lesson learned for China from the Ukraine war. Such as below:
The optimistic answer is that the lessons he is learning make an invasion of Taiwan less likely. First, Xi may be wondering how well his untested military would perform if told to invade. Surely the abysmal performance of Russian troops must make Xi, and every other high official in China, wonder what happens if stiff resistance is met. Like the Russian army, but unlike the U.S. military and our allies who fought in Iraq or Afghanistan, the People's Liberation Army or PLA is simply untried. And Xi must fear that a military defeat could threaten his own hold on power.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/ukraine-war-china-and-taiwan
and the latest article in “the Japan times” showing the weaknesses of the People Liberation Army of China
The Chinese armed forces share many of the same weaknesses as the Russian military
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2022/06/13/%opinion_category%/china-russia-military-weaknesses/
Now the one step forward is that on May 24, 2022, NY times reported that
“WASHINGTON — The Biden administration has accelerated its efforts to reshape Taiwan’s defense systems as it projects a more robust American military presence in the region to try to deter a potential attack by the Chinese military, current and former U.S. officials say.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/us/politics/china-taiwan-military.html
With all these above readings, I feel the regime change is the preparation of the war against China same as on 12th October 1999 the Military Coup against @pmln_org under the leadership of Gen. Pervez Musharraf exactly 2years before the attack of 9/11 on September 11, 2001, which become the trigger point for the longest and most expensive war of the current history of human beings called Afghan War (2001 ~ 2021). The war exactly took 19 years, 10 months, 3 weeks, and 2 days starting on 7 October 2001 (exactly 2 years from the Coup of Gen. Pervez Musharraf and till 30 August 2021.
The above process in the same sequence was played in the 1977 Military Coup under the leadership of Gen. Zia ul-Haq on July 5, 1977, and the Soviets invade Afghanistan on 24 December 1979 which prolong the exile of the Soviet last soldier on 15 February 1989.
If carefully calculate the difference in duration between both Coups and the start of the Wars is almost two years in both cases.
Here, again the statement from the defense minister of China on Jun 12, 2022 “China Won’t Hesitate to Fight for Taiwan”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/12/world/asia/china-taiwan-us.html
Summarizing the above both historical incidents and the statements, indicating clearly increase in the probability of War and the current regime may continue or prolong for a minimum decay or more.